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Electrical engineer training (archive picture)
Photo: Monika Skolimowska / picture alliance / Monika Skolimowska / dpa-Zentralbild / dpa
In Germany, the shortage of skilled workers is threatened to worsen over the next few decades.
According to a study by the employer-related Institute of the German Economy (IW), companies could lose every eighth skilled worker by 2040 without targeted immigration and a higher retirement age.
The effects of the corona pandemic have not yet been taken into account, it said.
The researchers examined three scenarios for the consequences of the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation:
If the current pension scheme is retained and immigration is low, the number of skilled workers will, in the worst case, shrink by 4.2 million or 12 percent to 31.2 million by 2040, the scientists forecast.
A medium scenario is more likely, in which the number of skilled workers falls by 3.1 million or 8.8 percent.
With a targeted further development of the immigration regulations and a later retirement, the number of skilled workers between 20 and 69 years active in the labor market could be kept almost constant in the coming decades, the researchers write.
In any case, the economy must be prepared for the fact that the supply of skilled workers will structurally change significantly in the coming decades.
Because more and more young people were aiming for an academic education.
While the number of professionally qualified specialists is falling, the number of academics will increase in the next two decades.
ssu / dpa-AFX