04/06/2021 18:22
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 04/06/2021 20:33
The Central Bank is experiencing a spring when it comes to buying
dollars
.
Those corresponding to March surpassed
US $ 2 billion
and in the next 20 days it expects a higher level as a ton of
soybeans
remains above US $ 500 in the international market.
From the end of April to the end of May, Miguel Pesce
It should be done with an important part of the
US $ 8,500 million
that it is estimated that agriculture could liquidate this season.
Miguel Pesce, head of the BCRA.
Photo: Federico López Claro
Already on account of those dollars was that Minister
Martín Guzmán
announced the de-indexation of
the official dollar
(today at $ 92.30 and at the end of the year at $ 102.4, that is, it will only rise 11% until December) in an attempt to
stop somewhat the rise in prices
, especially food.
The photo left in March was bad at the start of the experience of slowing down the
march of the dollar to contain inflation
: the wholesale dollar rose only 1.1% while
the increase in the cost of living
, according to private consultants, would have exceeded 4 %
.
While the government significantly reduced the rate of increase in the exchange rate (the previous month it had risen 2.6%),
inflation
would have been higher than the 3.6% in February.
The rises associated with the beginning of classes (schools, supplies, clothing, etc.) and food were the engines of what would be another
bad mark
in terms of fighting
inflation.
The government is analyzing measures such as expanding the list of
maximum prices
and increasing marketing channels as a means to improve the supply of products, but
the basis of the strategy continues to be supported by delaying the dollar.
In the official ideology, whose main
objective is to
win the legislative elections at the end of the year, Argentine inflation is
roughly
determined
by 60% by the evolution of the dollar and 40% by the result of the
parity elections
.
In other words,
the main dispute revolves around whether the dollar beats wages or vice versa.
The government has already defined the lifeline for that race and made clear its desire for
the dollar to lose against inflation
and rising
wages
.
A classic in the race between variables for electoral years.
But the evolution of the pandemic, the lack of vaccines and the desire of some officials to return to confinement situations can change everything and this is how Guzmán would have understood it when he said: "
Today the economy could not withstand a strict closure of activity
.
"
Health and the economy
The dilemma between health and the economy that President
Alberto Fernández
raised
last year at the start of the pandemic seems to have been overcome.
The impoverishment shock that the 2020 quarantine generated
is indelible for Argentines
and there are also doubts about the authority of officials to apply
strict confinement measures.
The first cry was given by Guzmán in a report with
CNN en Español
that showed a minister opening himself up to the harshest Kirchnerist positions regarding negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.
Alberto Fernández and Martín Guzmán.
Endorsing the statements of
Cristina Kirchner
that Argentina does not have dollars to pay the IMF the US $ 44,000 million that expire in 2022 and 2023,
the minister distanced himself from the vice
-
presidential claim
of asking the body for 20 years to pay the debt.
The vice president called for the formalization of an agreement with the opposition
to extend the debt payment terms and Guzmán ratified that the maximum term established by the Fund for its extended facility loans is 10 years and that this does not change overnight. the morning.
The minister explained that to extend the term of the debt by 10 years would require the support of
USA, China, Germany, Japan and France
and assured that achieving a change in the statutes of an international body such as the IMF could take years and Argentina, a country with cut credit, has to solve immediate problems.
Guzmán meets with the IMF
Next week
Guzmán will travel to Europe
and his relatives say, verbatim, that he will seek "to build understandings about what Argentina needs to stabilize its economy."
Will try to get a
forgiveness for the debt with the Paris Club (US $ 2.4 billion due in May and there are 60 days to pay it) and will meet with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, to discuss a possible agreement after the October elections or November.
Will you raise the 20 term?
Will it carry a specific message from the vice president?
The minister had an
anticipated response
when he returned from his trip to Washington in mid-March: he
went to play paddle tennis
with President Alberto Fernández, a photo was taken and uploaded to twitter.
Some analysts believe it was a message for
La Cámpora
.
Is it so?
It was that photo that inspired market operators to think that Guzmán seeks to distance himself from the
Kirchnerist parade against the IMF
in the days prior to the definition of a capital increase of the organization that could represent for Argentina the income of
US $ 4,355 million
, a very precious figure to lubricate the official strategy to delay the dollar, which became the main pillar to stabilize the short term.
And in a pandemic and with a shortage of vaccines, that is not little.