Daniel Fernandez Canedo
Updated 04/10/2021 12:39
The jump in inflation in the first quarter of the year generates a strong change in the expectations of consumers and savers, who now turn to any asset
updated by the UVA index.
The UVA is the Purchasing Value Index that is governed by the CER coefficient (Reference Stabilization Coefficient,
cost of living
) and a component linked to the evolution of the cost of
An increase in the cost of living of more than 4% in March, as estimated by the private sector, brought the forecasts for the
first four months to 16%
, leaving little room for optimism for the government to reach its inflation target of 29% for the entire year.
The official response to the
(largely supported by the jump in food) is being to slow down the rate of increase in the official dollar and the attempt to flatten the rises in the prices of food, essentially of baked goods, flour and food. oils, directly linked to what happens with the exchange rate.
With the dollar lagging - a result that promises to be repeated until after the
(October, November?) - the money lanes began to look for more profitable alternatives for the short term.
And in this sense, it is worth looking at where the professionals who manage medium-term options put their money, who, these days, were changing their preferences from deposits, bills and negotiable obligations tied to the dollar
to placements in UVA, in which a possible jump in the dollar would have less impact.
The most relevant data was provided during the week by the renewal of a Negotiable Obligation of Pan American Energy (PAE) in which the oil company offered
: one tied to the dollar-linked to obtain US $ 20,853,000, another with UVA to renew $ 2,029 million and the third at a variable interest rate of $ 2,500 million.
In the case of the obligation tied to UVA, they offered
64% more than what he asked for
and it was an alternative in high demand by banks and insurance companies seeking profitability in pesos against a sleeping dollar.
Martin Guzmán's Treasury does this by placing bonds and bills in indexed pesos that offer a higher return than the regulated interest rate and the variation of the dollar, both options controlled by the Central Bank.
In some way, the famous
(to be placed in options in pesos in case of an exchange delay until the months of growth of the expectation of devaluation) now occurs in large players and tying their luck to retail inflation and the cost of construction.
And this is possible, to a large extent, because the high price of soybeans works in favor of the liquidation of exports (the golden weeks are coming in terms of foreign exchange income) and that favors the belief that the Central Bank could
slow down the rise in the official dollar until the end of the year
According to the calculations of the economist Ricardo Arriazu, the increase in the value of the field's harvest will represent
US $ 9.5 billion
this year, a wind in favor of the external sector that would counteract the blow to economic activity that is causing the coronavirus pandemic and its attention.
The markets' bet in favor of stability continues despite two main ideas that hover over financial operators: 1) that the Government will postpone the
US $ 2.4 billion that expire in May with the Paris Club
with that group of creditors (they demand an agreement with the IMF from Guzmán);
and 2) that negotiations with the IMF are unlikely to close before the elections.
In the Casa Rosada they are convinced that a
postponement of the
, because the economy will be better in those days.
October and November are months of less inflow of dollars, but the Government should only be attentive to the lack of vaccines against the coronavirus that once again put wide sectors of economic activity on alert in a context in which inflation turned on the lights red and does not have the holder of Indec, Marco Lavagna, for cosmetic adventures.