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From Recoleta to Lomas de Zamora, the dramatic map of the crisis

2021-04-11T01:58:32.595Z

The collapse of high-end commercial activity and the fractured economy, according to data from the Government itself. Faced with such a trap, we have ministries and atomized decisions, power struggles and no one who is really at the helm.



Alcadio Oña

04/10/2021 1:21 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 04/10/2021 1:45 PM

The numbers bear the

unquestionable stamp of the AFIP

, cover the entire country and at one point speak of the economic impact of the

endless, expensive quarantine

that the Government put together last year to stop the advance of Covid-19 without stopping it, or even bruising it.

And, for that very reason, they are a sample of the already

cracked structure

on which the new chain of restrictions is now mounted.

Nationwide Retail Business Billing During the Pandemic.

Source: CEP XXI on the basis of AFIP and INDEC.

To begin with, we have

a map made based on data from 77,000 retail businesses

, which can be found on the website of the Ministry of Productive Development and which covers the 24 provinces, including the CABA, and 90 parties and towns in the Metropolitan Area , that is, of the Federal Capital and the Greater Buenos Aires.

And where is that point from which the new official essay starts?

It is in the

impressive drop in average real sales or turnover

, discounting inflation, which exploded in April 2020 and continued when the pandemic had already been fully installed.

Billing of retail businesses in the metropolitan area during the pandemic.

Source: CEP XXI on the basis of AFIP and INDEC.

No province was saved from the service, although compared to April-2019,

69.8% of the Autonomous City, 47.8% of Buenos Aires and 76.7% of Tierra del Fuego were

notable, notable in themselves and greater or well above the 44% of Córdoba, 35% of Santa Fe and 26% of Misiones.

So many figures together can and surely tire, but in more ways than one they explain the blows on blows that shake employment, consumption, economic activity and several other things.

The formula of inverting or crossing causes and effects can be used, but nothing in the background will change.

More extensive, a second and also illustrative column of the report touches on

90 parties, localities and neighborhoods of the AMBA:

that is, it brings the focus closer to more limited, recognizable and even familiar spaces.

There we have that, measured in figures,

the worst shocks were suffered by the stores in Floresta, Balvanera and Flores

, with collapses in sales that averaged 92%, 90 and 87% respectively.

Nearby, there is an X-ray of the middle class or sectors that are relatively well off if not directly well off: Villa Crespo marks a drop of 74%;

Belgrano says 73%;

Retirement, 71;

Recoleta and Colegiales 70 and San Isidro, 66%.

No rarity, Villa Riachuelo, on the Riachuelo edge of Buenos Aires, sings 76% and in GBA Lomas de Zamora, 65 and Esteban Echeverría, 60%.

For La Matanza, the sample scores 51%.

Just in case someone asks about the less pronounced retreat, the answer will say the Buenos Aires party of

General Las Heras, with a modest 12%;

followed by President Perón, also from Buenos Aires, with 20%.

It is clear that even if we are dealing with different businesses and different consumers, the magnitude of a few drops implies sales that are almost nothing.

Or they mean, simply,

the agony and disappearance of a business chorrera.

Better are the numbers that the official report registers towards November 2020 or January 2021

, compared to the same months of the previous years: the losses are reduced a bit and are mixed with some also limited positive records.

In any case, the result is not enough for the Government to be proclaiming victory: it says 70 reds against 20 blues.

Thus, as occurs with productive activities, everything that happens in commerce

falls into the category of rebound, not recovery or growth.

And since that little that exists nowhere near compensates for the downturns in the second and third quarters, the sector went undercapitalized, went into debt and in a few cases went straight to the brink.

According to data from CAME, an entity that represents small and medium-sized companies, last year 41,000 SME businesses lowered the blind.

If we take the Social Security numbers, which is equivalent to talking now about companies of all colors and blank economies,

we have that between January and April 2020, 15,800 companies fell and about 20,000 during the entire year

.

Also much effect of the quarantine and precedent of the current restrictions, the number of workers who lost regular jobs sings 188,000.

Industrialists and private builders count similar things when asked about the staffing.

Only 16.6% of industrialists plan to increase it in the short term and the remaining 83.4% plan to keep it as it is today or reduce it, that is, an account that goes from the same from worse to worse;

that of the builders says 25 and 75% respectively.

Paragraph of an economist with good access to the Casa Rosada: “Today the pandemic rules the whole line.

It imposes decisions and defines the path.

Compared with the fear that Alberto Fernández has of the effects of the health collapse, the cost of increasing public spending and the fiscal deficit and closing the economy is worth little. "

There is a good explanation for the

virulent or increasingly virulent speech of the President,

sometimes regardless of who it is addressed to.

Another, goes through the state of the economy and social indicators plus a horizon that does not look exactly encouraging.

At this point, the painting collides with a chain that has traversed the official front from its origins:

atomized ministries and atomized, if not contradictory

,

decisions and ideas

, bids for power and no one who really drives the economy.

You can add the old subject of the absent plan, and close it with a single question: what plan can come out of this gathering of forces?

All eyes are still on whoever wears the minister's belt, as if

Martín Guzmán

had a great capacity for decision and did not run, right now, the risk that while he proposes to start putting the public accounts on track, he will receive state expenses, subsidies and issue.

Surely necessary in the emergency, but far removed from the package of coordinated measures that recommended a re-outbreak of the announced pandemic.

The only thing that was missing in this mess was no longer missing when, through the mouth of the director for the Western Hemisphere, the

IMF

sneaked a strange, perhaps not so strange interference in foreign affairs.

Alejandro Werner said:

"It seems that there are significant differences of opinion within the political alliance of President Fernández about the direction they should take, both with regard to politics and negotiations with the Fund

.

"

Rigorously true, like his allusion to uncertainty, only that in the government there were those who interpreted that Werner also spoke on behalf of Guzmán and Guzmán's position.

On the other hand, it caused no surprise that the usually exalted

Axel Kicillof

had called the second wave of Covid-19 a “tsunami” and “fright”, nor that he warned that “this could end in catastrophe”.

University assembly language, as some analysts say, or directly calculated and anticipatory verbal terrorism?

It is quite a definition that Fernández and Kicillof appeal to the cry, to fear when not to sarasa instead of informing, specifically, in what way and with what means they plan to face a crisis without borders for now.

Obviously, closing is not a way out.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-04-11

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