Ezequiel Burgo
06/12/2021 8:42 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 06/13/2021 8:57 AM
According to the analysis of budget execution that the Congressional Budget Office released on Friday afternoon, the
fiscal adjustment continued until May
.
That month,
primary spending fell 17.2 compared to a year ago
.
The comparison removes the effect of inflation, which is a contraction that economists call a real decline.
The data has a political meaning.
It was in May when
Martín Guzmán challenged La Cámpora
, first by requesting the resignation of Federico Basualdo, his undersecretary in Electric Power, and, later, when he said that the current subsidy scheme is in favor of the rich.
Both actions of the Minister of Economy fell very badly at the Instituto Patria
.
The minister was called to silence and was shown in a photo with Axel Kicillof.
However, with the data that Congress published this Friday, it did not cause a change in the direction of spending.
At least for now, he continues with what he defined as his economic plan: the
Budget
.
The May numbers speak volumes.
Drop in
salaries
of 7.9%,
pensions
10% and
subsidies
21%.
Spending on social benefits reached $ 378,059 million and presented a real annual fall of 18%.
This happened because the mobility formula has not yet been updated (it will be in June with a rise of 12.12%) and because aid due to the pandemic decreased compared to last year.
If you take into account the first
five months of the year,
you realize that the first expense was reduced by 9.6%.
There is an increase in subsidies (4.1%) and a decrease of 15% in social benefits.
Those figures published by Congress differ from the numbers released month by month by the Ministry of the Economy.
The Ministry of Finance (according to the criteria of the National Budget Office) reports the evolution of the
cash
income and expenses
.
Congress, on the other hand, follows the criteria of what is
earned
based on the Budget that Guzmán has said is the axis of his economic plan.
In Argentina, attention is paid to the data reported by the Economy (cash basis) because it is relevant to know the financing that the State needs to be able to close the red and take on debt (or issue).
The calculation of the OPC does not take into account the numbers of the organizations outside the National Administration such as PAMI.
The adjustment of Fernández vs Cristina and Macri
"Taking these caveats into account, the May data from the Congress report is
positive,
"
says Martin Vauthier, economist and director of Anker Latin America.
"The April inertia continued
.
"
The latest issue of Economics is until April.
Not counting that there was a surplus in 2019, the economist Federico Marull notes that this year is the one with
the lowest fiscal deficit in the first four months since 2013
.
If one takes into account how the fiscal accounts came in the last legislative elections (2013, 2017 and now 2021), Mauricio Macri was the one who exhibited a more untidy box.
In three months, Cambiemos injected ANSeS credits through half a point of GDP and won the elections.
The market expects Fernández to do the same.
An acceleration in public spending from now to September even faster than that of Macri.
The consulting firm
Delphos
in its latest report gives a clue of that magnitude.
"The trajectory of activity will continue in a gradual decline until a minimum in June or July approximately and then grow thanks to the fiscal impulse derived from a
primary deficit of around 2.5% of GDP between June and October,
"
says the report.
That would mean, in money, that around $ 1.2 trillion would remain in the street, a figure greater than the stimulus that Macri injected in the face of the 2017 legislative elections (it is true that Cambiemos did not need to dump more pesos because
its economy was growing at 4% and inflation fell
).
"In election years, odd-numbered years, you always try to put money in people's pockets,"
says Vauthier.
The risks of more pesos in the street
The government measures were: doubling the beneficiaries of the Alimentar Card, doubling the Repro and Empowering Work, an extraordinary bonus in May of $ 1,500 to retirees and beneficiaries of AUH, in June they advance $ 7,083 per child for beneficiaries of AUH, spending increases for vaccines and energy.
The Budget expects a primary deficit of 4.2% of GDP.
Estimates from private companies are between 3.5% of GDP and that figure.
Even so, it is reduced compared to 2020 (6.5%).
The greater injection of pesos generates
risks
for the stability of the economy. This liquidity could put pressure on the dollar and increase the gap, as argued by former Vice Minister of Economy Emmanuel Alvarez Agis to economist Lorena Giorgio in the latest Equilibra report.
"The demand for pesos is beginning to weaken just when public spending should begin to gain momentum due to the higher expenditures related to Covid-19 and the electoral" push ", and facing the months that accumulate the highest maturities in pesos of the year ”
. In May deposits in pesos fell.