Daniel Fernandez Canedo
06/15/2021 7:59 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 06/15/2021 8:12 PM
The question to the official was direct: Will they loosen
the dollar
with the US $ 15,000 million more that Argentina will have this year?
The answer was also categorical but after detailing that part of those US $ 15,000 million due to the greater inflow of foreign currency
from soy exports at US $ 600 per
ton and the extraordinary contribution of US $ 4,400 million from the International Monetary Fund for the pandemic and are destined -.
The Central Bank bought most of these dollars to strengthen reserves and on that basis the government has already decided to postpone any agreement with the IMF until the end of the year at least.
Having an additional $ 15 billion this year is the foundation of the main economic and anti-inflationary policy.
that the government has, which is none other than to keep the dollar calm in an attempt not to ignite skyrocketing inflation and to try to comply with the mandate of Vice President Cristina Kirchner at the end of last year regarding wages winning the race to inflation in the election year.
If the net reserves of the Central Bank already exceed US $ 6,500 million and experts believe that they could reach
US $ 8,000 million
by the end of July (the last month of strong liquidation of exports from the field), will the time have come to loosen the grip dollar?.
There are probably more dollars at the official price (it is at $ 100.25 and the wholesale price at $ 95.29) for the importation of some products by companies.
But there will not be "not even in dreams" for savings and tourism purposes that now pay the "solidarity" at $ 165.41.
In the official diagnosis, the
"passion" of Argentines to save in dollars
remains intact and they emphasize that even in years in which the expectation of a devaluation was placated, people came to buy US $ 17,000 million for savings and tourism purposes in the Exterior.
With the "blue" dollar at $ 159, experts are now very attentive to the evolution of the
"gap"
between the wholesaler and the "cash with settlement" which is the legal free dollar that is operated through the purchase and sale of bonds in Dollars.
That gap, which currently stands at 73%, is high and if it widens, operators believe, it will be a great temptation to under-invoice exports and over-invoice imports, two known maneuvers in times of rigid exchange controls and official attempts to delay the price of oil. dollar.
The delay of the official dollar against inflation is underway as the Central Bank raises it at a monthly rate of 1.2% against an increase in the cost of living that easily exceeds 3%.
The
backwardness of the dollar
and of
gas and electricity rates
this year (they will rise 6% and 9% respectively) are heading to play together with the controls for food prices as the central elements in the fight against inflation that is projected by 46% annually, well above the goal of 29% set by the Ministry of Economy for this year.
And that three-legged scheme opens, in turn, the door for the main official objective in terms of income policy, which will be the attempt to ensure that
salaries and
pensions
can overcome the rise in the cost of living
, a career that they have been losing. and for quite a difference.
Last year, on average,
real wages lost 2.3%
as a consequence, according to INDEC data, that private salaries increased 34.4%, public salaries 26.8% and those of unregistered workers who managed to maintain employment 39%.
These increases lost purchasing power for the most part in the face of inflation that was 36.1%.
This year, as a result of the joint ventures recorded in a report by the EcoGo consultancy, the average increases are 30% for
Commerce
, 28.9% for Gastronomic, 39.3% for banking, 25.1% for Truckers (hence the request for reopening and 54% increase), 47.5% for
Construction
, 19.5% for State, 40% for Teachers as well as Oil Producers and 19.8% for Health workers.
In most cases, these increases are less than the expected 45/46% increase in the cost of living, which means that the career will be difficult if the government tries to make its wishes come true.
The same occurs with
retirements and pensions
where the difference between the evolution of income and inflation is even greater.
The
"retirement mass",
that is, the amount of money to be distributed among retirees grows by 30%, some 15 points below inflation.
With the arrival of more vaccines and entering fully into the pre-electoral period, we would have to wait for an anti-inflationary strategy, known by Kirchnerism: to
cover and pressure
prices and increase public spending in the attempt to improve an economic activity that reacts with respect to the paralyzed last year but is far from creating the conditions for sustained growth.
The Monitoring of Public Opinion of Management & Fit this month shows that 73% of those consulted consider that
the economic situation worsened
this year and a persistent striking fact is that 63% believe that the situation will be even worse in the coming months.
How much will the inflationary jump have to do with this first part of the year?