Ana Clara Pedotti
07/18/2021 8:29 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/18/2021 8:29 PM
In an economy marked by the effects of the pandemic and exchange restrictions,
saving in pesos seems an increasingly less profitable option.
With little chance of accessing the dollar, both in the official market and in the multiple parallels, the
fixed bank terms for eleven months have not given a positive return for
the "ordinary saver"
. And despite the fact that the exchange rate gap has widened again in recent days, it does not seem that the Central Bank was willing to raise its interest rates.
The Government sought to anticipate a scenario of greater dollar shortages in the second half of the year and advanced in a
greater tightening of the exchange rate
, which in turn allowed it to
buy about US $ 530 million in the last five wheels.
However, these measures caused nervousness among savers and the blue overheated to $ 179 on Friday and
the gap with the official returned to 85%.
At the same time,
June inflation
, while showing an incipient slowdown - which seems to be the starting point of a trend expected for the second half of the year by both City analysts and the Government - still
remained above 3%.
, which also gave the guideline that this decline will be at a very gradual pace in the coming months.
The body chaired by Miguel Pesce seems to have relegated its power to
use the reference rates of monetary policy as a shaft
to try to control inflation, a tool that the presidents of the Central did resort to in the Cambiamos era.
This is fixed at 38% per year since the end of last year.
"The real interest rate, the one that most directly impacts consumption and investment decisions, went from more than 1% per month in the second quarter of 2020 to almost -1% per month in the first quarter of 2021 and to neutrality in May and June ", highlighted economists from Ecolatina. "Consequently, a fixed monetary policy rate, instead of giving monetary policy certainty and predictability,
filled it with uncertainty and erraticity,
" they added.
But going forward, there is little expectation that in a pre-electoral moment, the Central will decide to update its rates. "I
do
not
see a vocation or space for the Central Bank to update its
interest
rates
. With a scenario of lower inflation in the second semester, and in an economy with an increasingly hard stocks, there is a political decision for the rate to define it the Treasury in its tenders. For both retail savers and companies, there are not too many options, "said Analytica economist Ricardo Delgado.
Raising the bank benchmark rate would mean an increase in credit costs, something that goes against the official intention to consolidate the recovery of post-pandemic activity. "Today the BCRA interest rate is not being used as a mechanism to contain inflation expectations.
The rate bar is set by the Treasury
, which seeks to channel pesos that today are in remunerated liabilities in the banks to finance the deficit, "explained Martín Vauthier, from Anker Latin America.
If the exchange rate pressures persist and the gap between the official and the parallel expands, even with the latest measures, even more than 85%, the Central could "have no choice" but to update its rates, even by a couple of points.
However, this is not a likely scenario for analysts.
"It could be a tool in the event of greater exchange rate stress, but the BCRA has short-term margin to intervene with
greater restrictions, resorting to net reserves or intervening in futures,
" added Vauthier.
At the same time, if the increase in the CPI managed to break the 3% monthly floor, the bank deposit rate could recover a marginal positive return in the coming months.
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