Annabella quiroga
07/20/2021 14:05
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/20/2021 2:05 PM
The rising blue dollar brings the exchange gap to 90%, the highest level so far this year.
Both government and private sector economists view the gap with concern, because if it consolidates at these levels it will add
greater stress to the market and also to prices
at a time when inflation is expected to begin to decelerate.
The gap measures the distance between the blue dollar, which today touched
$ 183,
and the wholesale dollar, which is trading at
$ 96.34
.
For analysts, this gap may complicate the Central Bank's reserves since it is an incentive for importers to make purchases abroad and therefore demand more foreign currency, and at the same time it encourages exporters to slow down sales in the legal circuit and to negotiate. part of its production in the segment of parallel dollars.
These are the
five keys
to expanding the gap:
More controls
Ten days ago, the Central Bank and the National Securities Commission decided to give
the exchange market one more turn
.
With new regulations, they restricted the number of operations that can be carried out weekly in cash with liquid (CCL), the segment that allows foreign currency to be withdrawn from the country.
With this they seek to take care of the reserves and that so many dollars do not go to the Central in controlling the prices of financial dollars.
But at the same time, this complicated access to the CCL and
reignited fears about the restrictions being deepened.
This rising uncertainty translated into increased pressure on alternative dollars.
As the blue is the segment on which the Government has the least impact, it is there where the tensions are most clearly expressed.
High inflation
In June,
inflation was 3.2%
and accumulated 50% in the last twelve months.
Although it is falling from the peak of 4.9% last March, private analysts see it difficult for the monthly indices to consolidate below 3% in the second semester.
With inflation at these levels, the Government is betting that the official dollar will be the exchange rate anchor.
So this quote
rose just 14% in the year
, against a cumulative inflation around 29%.
The strategy of stepping on the official dollar suggests that at some point - after the elections? -
these variables will be corrected
and the dollar will move closer to inflation, as happened in 2020.
Negative rates
With an eye on not stifling the meager signs of economic reactivation, the Government remains firm in not touching the rates in pesos.
The reference rate remains at 38%
, well below an inflation that travels to 50% per year.
This discourages saving in pesos.
And although in recent months fixed-term placements that are adjusted for inflation have grown, they represent
a very small portion of the market
.
Therefore, for the small saver, the dollar continues to appear as the best option to defend against endemic inflation.
Less dollars, more pesos
At the start of the second semester, the strong inflow of foreign currency from the field was cut off, which in the first part of the year contributed more than
US $ 16,600 million
.
In the midst of strict exchange controls, this contribution allowed the Central Bank to buy more than US $ 7.5 billion, strengthen reserves and have room to control alternative dollars.
But for the remainder of the year, foreign exchange earnings will fall, while the government will
increase social spending ahead of the elections
.
This will lead to the resumption of the issuance of pesos, which could put pressure on prices and cause inflation and the dollar to overheat.
Pre-election dollarization
Eight weeks before the elections, PASO begins to hit the
"preventive dollarization"
that is common in Argentina on the way to the elections.
This time it is combined with an improvement in the income of the more affluent sectors, which receive more pesos for the parity, the bonus and the changes in the income tax.
Although a
good part of these extra pesos is expected to go to consumption
, a portion also puts pressure on the dollar.
With the official under control and running behind inflation, the pesos go to the "free" market, the blue dollar market.
It is a small market, which
does not move more than US $ 5 million a day
, which allows that if few played, they put pressure on the demand, the prices to rise.
AQ
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