Daniel Fernandez Canedo
07/20/2021 19:05
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/20/2021 19:05
A few days after the closing of the definition of candidates for the legislative election in November, the rise of six pesos of
the blue dollar
made the government very uncomfortable.
A
free dollar of $ 182
marked the beginning of a new stage of tension in the exchange market that is associated with the lower inflow of dollars for seasonal reasons and which is supposed to be a greater demand for banknotes typical of the electoral years in Argentina.
The rise in the blue was also supported by what is presented as a possible new international scenario with a dollar strengthening against the weakening of the currencies of emerging countries and the
prices of raw materials.
Although the context remains favorable for the Central Bank, which
has bought US $ 1 billion
in July
when the same month last year posted a loss of US $ 300 million, a cloud of concern surrounds officials in the economic area.
Part of the concern lies in the assurance that
no more foreign currency will come in from exports
and that the
dollarization
process
of savings portfolios will be inexorable.
Faced with this scenario, both Minister
Martín Guzmán
and the president of the Central Bank resist raising interest rates in pesos on the understanding that dollarization will be inexorable and that the exchange rate will act as a containment dam for many purchases, especially from importers.
The increase in imports occurred in June and is repeated in July in the heat of a
wholesale dollar of $ 96.33,
which is not only
the cheapest in the market
but also determines a gap of 90% with the blue.
Officials repeat almost daily that
the blue segment moves only two million dollars a day
and that the government does not intend to intervene in any way even when they lit a candle to plead for the opening of the borders.
In the government they comment that
Miguel Pesce
is the most interested after the Minister of Tourism
Matías Lammens
is that they open Ezeiza and all the borders so that Brazilian, Paraguayan, Uruguayan and Bolivian tourists from the rest of the world come.
They rightly argue that, measured in blue dollars, Argentina has the cheapest prices by far in the region and that with their dollars they would be an important source of supply for the marginal exchange market.
Of course, they know that these requests have little impact on the authorities of the health area and the Casa Rosada who continue with their decision of
closed borders
even when Argentines remain stranded around the world.
There is another offer of dollars that has been declining in recent weeks and is associated with the one that was given in March by the taxpayers of the wealth tax.
When that offer ran, the
"counted with liquidation" (CCL)
felt the pull and now the Central Bank would be the main offeror.
Less foreign exchange income from
exports from the field
, less supply in the CCL with a Central Bank more active in that segment and the government that
focuses its attention on the evolution of retailers
that until now had lowered their operations since the The "solidarity" dollar had been above the blue, so there was no point in
the "pure"
of buying foreign currency from the Central to make a difference and selling them in the blue.
This gap between the
solidarity or tourist
(official plus 30% more advance than 35% of Profits) and
the blue went from 6% a month ago to 9% these days
and is a reason for monitoring more for reasons of expectation than for the possible loss of currency from the Central in this way.
A rise in dollars always threatens price stability and an interest rate in pesos of 34% to 37% that they offer to depositors for fixed terms sinks against inflation of 50% per year and even when the exchange rate tries put a containment dam for the exit of the weights.
Regarding the amount of pesos, there is a paradox: Martín Guzmán's Treasury opened its hand and began to drop pesos while, simultaneously, the Central Bank absorbs pesos from the financial system and between the Leliq and the passes accumulates an immobilized mountain of $ 3 , 7 billion pesos that
accrue interest at 38% per year
.
If the Central has pesos and the Treasury has a deficit, wouldn't it be reasonable for it to take them even if it has to raise the rate so as
not to leave so much money floating
?
Day by day the second semester film is screened with well-defined characteristics: many pesos and fewer dollars that generate problems for those who have to pay or turn abroad and for those who do not know where to allocate the excess pesos.
Meanwhile
the
inflation
makes your game
.
The projection for July of the EcoGo consultancy is 3% with
food in the lead with an average rise of 3.7%
.
Neither the anesthetized dollar nor the delayed electricity, gas and transportation rates manage to give a blow to the rise in the cost of living.
Perhaps because, as economist Carlos Melconian likes to say, inflation is an
"angel and a devil"
for the government.
A demon for the havoc that it produces at 50% per year on the income of the population, but an angel for helping to collect more taxes and liquefy a good part of public spending, such as that destined for pensions.