Annabella quiroga
07/23/2021 6:02 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/23/2021 7:24 AM
The range of dollars that exist in Argentina
does not stop adding new variants
.
What was initially the wholesale, retail, blue and financial dollars branched out to design a labyrinth in which the
same type of dollar can have an oscillation of up to 14 pesos in price
.
In recent weeks, the blue dollar has consolidated as the most expensive on the market
.
On Thursday it closed at
$ 184
, with a 91% gap over the wholesale dollar, which reaches
$ 96.41
and the retail one at
$ 101.68
, with the dollar saving, with taxes and surcharges, at
$ 168
.
But
when looking for the price of financial dollars is when the ramifications kick in
.
This category has
two species:
the cash with liquid (CCL), which allows foreign currency to be drawn from the country, and the MEP dollar, which is bought and sold on the Buenos Aires stock market.
To operate both in the MEP and in cash with liquid, you have to
buy Argentine securities that are listed in pesos and then sell them in dollars
.
There are several roles that offer this possibility.
The most widely used is the
AL30 bond
, issued last year with the debt swap.
Depending on the price of the bond, the price of both the CCL and the MEP is determined.
These are two legal variants of dollarization used with great assiduity by companies and individuals based on the exchange rate.
And at the same time they act as a
frame of reference
for the illegal segment, the blue dollar.
If financial dollars skyrocket, the blue does so even more.
For this reason, the Central Bank has been intervening for eight months by buying and selling this AL30 bond to prevent the CCL price from closing above the
$ 170
threshold
.
Alternative dollars
The BLUE and the CCL (YPF) of the MEP (AL30) are detached, making clear the intervention in the latter by the BCRA
A little gift to pay cheaper pic.twitter.com/qN7inMxFAd
- Christian Buteler (@cbuteler) July 22, 2021
The problem is that to intervene in that market, the Central uses foreign exchange that is scarce.
It is estimated that of the
$ 7.5 billion
it bought this year,
$ 1 billion
went to control financial dollars.
To prevent this bleeding from continuing, ten days ago
the stocks were further adjusted
and a weekly limit was set on the number of operations that can be made using the AL30 bonus.
This generated that the investors turned to the other papers that are used for this circuit.
Among them,
the ADRs of Banco Galicia and YPF
.
As the Central does not intervene here, the price is agreed between private parties in a segment known as SENEBI.
Rising prices
Then, from stocks to stocks, the gap of the gap began to grow.
On Thursday the cash with liqui in the AL30 version of the bond closed at
$ 167
.
But in the YPF version it ended at
$ 181.60.
"The BLUE and the CCL (YPF) are detached from the MEP (AL30), making clear the intervention in the latter by the BCRA.
A little gift to pay cheaper,
" financier Christian Buteler tweeted.
This diversity of prices also makes the gap diversify: in the CCL AL30 it is
73%
and in the YPF version it reaches
88%
, inches from 91% of the blue gap.
"The market has been showing sufficient evidence that in the face of greater controls it
will continue to find new escape routes to become dollarized,
" slides the consultancy Equilibra.
The consulting firm warns that this disparity in values within the CCL may further thin the outlook.
"As the CCL via bonds is no longer a reference price for this market, it is very likely that the informal price
will become much more volatile
and will not converge to the“ regulated CCL ”, but rather be coupled to the“ free CCL ”".
An additional risk is that the Central Bank will tighten controls on importers and limit their chances of accessing the official dollar.
This pushes them to the CCL, where access was also restricted with the new obstacles.
Thus, importers would have to look for foreign exchange in the CCL and in its most expensive variant, the free one, which could influence the final prices of the goods.
If the importer is hindered with the stocks and "he has to resort to a cash settlement to be able to bring merchandise, in those cases it
begins to have an impact on the import,"
said Buteler.
AQ
Look also
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The one who bought dollars earned in the last 30 days four times more than the one who saved in pesos