Ana Clara Pedotti
07/26/2021 7:14 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/26/2021 7:14 PM
After having reached its highest value so far this year last week,
the blue dollar fell to $ 184 at the beginning of the week.
In any case, the gap between the official quotation and the free exchange rate remains above 90% and worries both analysts and the Government.
Meanwhile,
financial exchange rates
, in a market where fewer and fewer players can operate due to the obstacles imposed by the Central Bank this month and where there is greater official intervention, fell back from the maximum they had reached at the beginning of the round and ended with increases
of 0.2%
. The
cash with "screen" settlement ended at $ 167.51
, while the MEP dollar or Stock Exchange, rose to $ 166.81.
Outside these two prices, in operations where there are no official restrictions to dollarize, the exchange rate ended with a slight rise. For example,
the "Senebi dollar
", which is the exchange rate that arises from bilateral negotiations between specialized market players, who operate large amounts, ended at $ 182. Due to the restrictions, this value is more representative:
almost 70% of the operations
that were carried out via cash with liqui migrated to this segment in recent weeks.
Despite having yielded this Monday, the
blue remains close to its ceiling of $ 195
reached last October, amid the strong exchange rate turbulence that ended in a greater tightening of the exchange rate hold.
The truth is that if the impact of inflation on the banknote is discounted, the US currency is still far from that value in real terms: it
should trade at $ 270 to reach the maximum level
of last year.
In any case, both the market and the government monitor the rise, both because of the speed it took so far in July and because of the
"psychological impact" of the increase in blue
on all prices in the economy.
And although the Alberto Fernández administration downplays the gap,
analysts warn that if
its escalation
deepens
, it
may
further
complicate
the official plan
.
The blue comes from scoring
three consecutive monthly
increases
: it
increased
$ 9 (6.4%) in April, $ 7 (4.7%) in May, and $ 11 (7%) in June
.
Five days after the end of the month, the ticket accumulates a rise of $ 16, 9.5%, the
highest
monthly update
since
January
.
For financial analyst
Christian Buteler
, despite the decline on Monday, there is room for parallel dollars to resume their
upward path
.
"With inflation of 3% per month,
there is no margin for the exchange rate to remain stable.
In the last 30 days, the Central Bank expanded the monetary base by 11%. This injection of pesos complicates all prices in the economy So, how much more the dollar rises will depend more on the monetary issue, than on other factors, "he said.
In the official segment, the wholesale dollar, accessed by the big players, ended this Monday at
$ 96.54 per unit
, twelve cents above the close of last Friday.
Unlike the previous wheels,
the Central Bank could not buy tickets
for its reserves on the first day of the week.
Even so, it
accumulates purchases for US $ 1,050 million
so far in July.
"A more active authorized demand balanced the development of the operations of the first round of the week, preventing a new positive jump for the BCRA", explained
Gustavo Quintana
of PR Corredores de Cambios.
He explained: "Private sources in the market estimated that the monetary authority ended the day with a neutral balance due to its intervention."
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