07/29/2021 8:22 PM
Updated 07/29/2021 8:40 PM
Put to analyze the economy and politics in the Argentine crisis during the period that goes from 1958 with the government of Frondizi to 1973 of Cámpora, one of the great referents of sociology, Juan Carlos Portantiero (1934 - 2007) coined the concept
" hegemonic draw ”
In 1977 he wrote: “I tried to analyze the behavior of the main social actors, as motivated by the logic of a tie between forces, alternatively capable of vetoing the projects of the others, but
without sufficient resources to impose, in a lasting way, their own ”.
Juan Carlos Portantiero, author of the hegemonic tie concept.
Forty-four years passed and the Portantiero paper circulates among businessmen who
attribute the crack or that confrontational dynamic to the hegemonic draw.
One of them, with
“a lot of effort and few miracles to tell
”, put up the sale sign at his factory and summed up the attitude in the word “fed up”. He senses that things are not going to change and prefers to make cash even if he receives a devalued price. The industrialist, with a plant of 500 people, asked not to be mentioned. He describes that several of his peers unfold operations in other countries of a Latin America that is poorer.
In technology, another phenomenon appears with
young people who lost their feeling of roots
, who can work from anywhere and collect their salaries in dollars in accounts abroad, due to the exchange gap.
In this sector there are
9,000 active searches for professionals.
Darío, Adrián and Daniel Werthein.
There are, however,
many on the hunt for opportunities
They are local groups like the Wertheins that, frustrated by not staying with Walmart, finally returned to telecommunications with Direct TV.
Hugo Sigman is said to have struggled to find a local buyer for a portion of the laboratory that makes Astra Zeneca's vaccine.
There are, yes, groups from the interior in the
cat flats looking for the floor in the prices to make the leap.
In Matías Kulfas's ministry, they say they receive calls from abroad interested in
mining, agribusiness and alternative energy
. Miguel Pesce from the Central will facilitate a
mechanism so that the dollars for productive investment are changed to the cash value with settlement
. Will it be enough to reverse the divestment?
Some, like Alejandro Reca, a partner in San Ignacio, turn to public banks and suppliers to continue standing. It is the first exporter of dulce de leche and the second of blue cheese behind the French owners of Milkaut. Reca describes SME life as
a daily feat.
"In Argentina there is a lack of confidence and you have to learn to take advantage of that uncertainty," he says. Bet on new products in a domestic market that moves at lower prices and has problems in the payment chain. Its output is Ezeiza through export. From a plant north of Santa Fe, with 130 employees, a team of 20 researchers and in keeping with demanding environmental and traceability requirements, they sell dulce de leche to dairy kings like New Zealand or destinations like Japan.
José Chediak is one of those who feel a productive drive, with a career carved from below. Leader in olive oil has the strategic patience to wait at least six years for another of its plantations such as pistachio to bear the first fruits.
The backward official dollar, the import restrictions that leave it without spare parts and without sophisticated harvesters,
are some of its misadventures. "The regional economies require a long-term look that has not existed for decades," he shoots by stating that for every million dollars of production they generate, 32 jobs are needed versus the eight jobs in the humid pampas. "
60% of my work day is solving problems instead of adding value
”, He emphasizes.
It has 800 tons of premium oil to export and cannot find containers.
Meanwhile, the blue burst with force.
For the banks, the Central
has it easier than in October 2020 when it climbed to $ 195
but they anticipate a fight in a scenario where the negotiation of private debt calmed down with the agreement that Kicillof closed, although the one in La Rioja is still missing.
They comment that Pesce begs for
an opening of borders: he believes that with the current prices in dollars there will be an invasion from neighboring countries.
The dollar income you need.
Elections on the agenda
In the Zoom, the conversations revolve around the electoral result and the doubts about what will be the next advance of the State over the private sector.
"Do not be scared, Cristina tightens the rope, but when it is about to collide, it bends,"
some officials reassure.
In the business environment, attention is paid to the November elections.
"The best result is the one that
forces the ruling party to negotiate
," say the industrialists.
Those who frequent Olivos, which are not few, describe an Alberto Fernández who, although he feels tired, is still "very hooked and motivated."
They leave the Quinta with the feeling that he
will go for re-election in 2023 even if he sees tension in the street.
At these meals, it is conjectured with an
“oxygenation” of the Cabinet
for the post-pandemic that will express the balance of forces of the ruling coalition. They reason that if they win, the victory will be for Alberto Fernández not only because he slipped his own as the head of the list. Also, because Cristina lost all the midterm elections.
“Cristina has a dialogue with history, with her symbolic capital, with what her government was
. Alberto has to look to the present and to the future ”, explains a presidential advisor.
With the campaign underway, the Government will announce in these days
less restrictions on meat exports and a cataract of incentives
for Argentina to increase its livestock production stagnant at 3 million tons per year since 1980. In Agriculture they have tried to convince their Even that the problem is not the price of the barbecue, but the wages.
In Kicillof's time as Minister of the Economy, the barbecue cost US $ 9 per kilo, today, US $ 7, always according to the official exchange rate.
Nicolás Pino, brand new president of the Argentine Rural Society.
Nicolás Pino, new head of La Rural, is committed to dialogue to free meat exports. He maintains Zoom with his peers from the Liaison Table and with the self-convened who organize another act such as that of San Nicolás on July 9. "
We have no results but we are going to insist,
" underlines Pino, the first president of La Rural without his own field. Lease in Gualeguaychú and General Alvear for livestock. A symbol of these times, Pino found
the La Rural accounts on fire
after two years without holding the classic Palermo exhibition. He anticipates a great harvest but warns of rising costs. A fact: the urea that last year was sold at US $ 500 per ton, today is not available for less than US $ 650.
In the UIA they speak of a heterogeneous reality with leading appliances and sales that will be encouraged with the Now 12 and 18 that the Government relaunches, to which
are added with a
Agricultural machinery, metalworking and the steel industry are also recovering. The automakers are a separate chapter, at least in investment announcements:
added together they show US $ 28 billion.
Contrast with the very complicated service sector.
There they are focused on what they named the
, which, drawn up from the provincial branches, will be an industrial policy proposal.
For the president of the entity, Daniel Funes de Rioja, who overcame the Covid, the agreement with the IMF for a path of predictability is key.
The government tells them that it
comes out because they are not going to ask for anything
, just refinance.
It seems like a joke because of the magnitude of the debt that must be stretched over time.
It is curious, since in the Casa Rosada the clothes are now being torn for not having specified it before, which would have allowed less exchange rate tension.
That will be a question to
Pedro's Wado at the open-air lunch
that it will maintain with the business leaderships.
It is organized by Funes de Rioja in his role as president of the Cicyp.