Annabella quiroga
08/11/2021 1:45 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/11/2021 1:45 PM
The blue dollar started Wednesday at
$ 178
, a 50-cent drop from yesterday's close.
With this, it goes back two pesos so far this month.
On the other hand, the one that continues to advance is the cash with liquid, which reaches
$ 173
and climbs 2.5% in the month and 23% so far in 2021.
In the year,
the blue dollar advanced only 7%
, since it opened the year at $ 166. Although it recovered from June, when it became the most expensive in the market, it has been rising well below inflation and even less than the official dollar, which increased 15% since January.
Another is the trajectory of cash with liquid, which advanced 2.3% in the month and 23% in the year, more than any other type of dollar, but less than inflation, which has increased by 30%.
The cash with liqui or CCL is the operation that allows to extract foreign currency from the country through the purchase and sale of Argentine shares and bonds that are quoted in pesos and dollars.
In this market, which is used mostly by companies, the Central Bank intervenes daily through the sale of the AL30 bond, to increase the offer of this security and thus lower prices.
In this way, the Central prevents the CCL from firing.
A month ago, the monetary authority added a restriction in this market and
set a limit on the number of weekly operations
that can be done with the AL30.
This triggered transactions with other securities, such as Galicia and YPF shares.
In this segment, which is called SENEBI, the private parties negotiate the operations among themselves without the intervention of the Central.
This made the "free" CCL climb to 8% in July and will reach
$ 184
, while the "intervened" CCL rose 2%.
Today that gap between both types of CCL is narrowing.
The free price is
$ 177
, just five pesos above the intervened.
This occurs because the Central limited its interventions and was allowing the CCL with AL30 to climb above $ 170.
In turn, the free CCL fixes a ceiling on the blue, which begins to move in tune with this variant.
How the CCL continues
"Although we expect the exchange market to reach the elections with the gap controlled by the BCRA (“ CCL AL30 ”) below 75%, it is less clear what will happen to the“ free ”gaps (ADRs, Cedears, SENEBI, informal ) ", says the consulting firm Equilibra.
"We cannot rule out that these gaps follow an upward path in the transition to the elections and that they
even reach 3 figures
. But, even in a scenario of tension, we continue to believe that the government has several tools to avoid an explosive trajectory in the market of changes, "says Equilibra.
According to the consulting firm's estimate, the Central used reserves of
US $ 410 million
throughout July to intervene in the financial dollar markets, the highest monthly record since this operation was carried out.
"Going forward, it will surely have to continue to intervene at a rate similar to that of the second half of July (about
US $ 25 million per day
) so that the intervened gap remains below 75% and the free gap does not exceed 90%. This it implies disbursements for US $ 2,130 million in the next five months, half of the net reserves that the BCRA has accumulated in the year ", they indicate.
AQ
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