Gustavo Bazzan
08/13/2021 7:49 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/13/2021 7:49 PM
This year the Government won
the lottery
and as a prize they received
an unexpected 12,000 million dollars
: between 7 and 8,000 million due to the extraordinary rise in agricultural prices. Another 4.3 billion for the IMF's decision to increase its capital. Despite this, the Central Bank could not calm expectations. The fact is that the dollars gave the government room to stretch the closing of the negotiations with the Fund for after the elections, precisely so that an "agreement" becomes a campaign issue.
The logical dollar sale is for imports and to pay debt maturities that
cannot be rolled over
.
Increased
imports
were added to the demand for foreign exchange from the private sector
to offset
the fall in local production
with imported energy
.
As Argentina is out of the global capital market, because it should pay an astonishing interest rate, every dollar that expires must be paid.
The third variable that impacts on reserves is the need for
intervention on the bond market
, to control not only the price of the dollar counted with settlement, but also the gap between it and the official one.
The
“anti-roll” operation
is explained because in this way - arbitrating the regulated CCL dollar against the free CCL dollar - the Central was losing between 20 and 30 million dollars per day.
“If the intervention rate of the last weeks is maintained, US $ 2,100 million would be used until November.
A rhythm between US $ 500 and US $ 600 million per month that the BCRA uses to buy AL 30D and AL30C that it then sells against pesos and indirectly allows to contain the gap that opened
against the dollar SENEBI of 8/9% ”they
calculate in a consultant.
This paragraph explains the meaning of the BCRA circular that has been in force since last night.
Of course, the
dollarization of portfolios - a
classic of pre-electoral times - can lead the Central's intervention to figures even above those projected by the market.
In addition to
Circular A 7340,
the Central, the AFIP and the CNV are passing the fine comb over the market to detect any type of “irregularity”.
In recent weeks they have advanced on
E invoices, which are issued by those who sell services abroad.
Cases of calls from the Central Bank to taxpayers who had issued these invoices but had not settled the corresponding dollars were discussed.
Logically, those dollars are settled at the official exchange rate, which is what everyone wants to avoid.
To do this, they asked to delay the payment of said invoices, or even sold them to third parties who dumped them into a trust and collected them abroad, to enter the dollars through the Cash with Liqui market.
These days, the Central Bank is threatening to promote causes for violation of exchange regulations to those who do not quickly regularize this situation.
They are demonstrations that any resource is valid to defend the dwindling amount of dollar reserves.
Look also
Dollar: confusion in the market due to the “anti-curl” circular imposed by the Central Bank
End to the roller?
The Central Bank further limited the operation of financial dollars