Juan Manuel Barca
08/24/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 08/24/2021 8:20 AM
The Government deployed all its tools to generate a "summer" before the elections.
The main one was the decision to iron the dollar
.
The objective is to contain inflation so that, along with the reopening of joint ventures, the reinforcement of social programs, and semi-frozen rates, consumption is propped up.
But the strategy would not be gratuitous for the economy.
"The cost of this, meager in our opinion, boost to consumption, is not less: it
will be the most significant exchange rate appreciation of the last five mid-term elections
,"
Econviews
said
.
According to the consultancy, the real exchange rate will register a 12% year-on-year variation in October, well above the 4% in 2005, 2% in 2009, 1% in 2013 and 3% in 2017.
Unlike other periods, inertia meant that, although the official dollar travels at 1%, inflation does so at 3% or more, putting pressure on the real exchange rate.
"
The level of competitiveness is not bad, but the slowdown is enormous
, so the summer is going to take its toll and there will be an exchange rate correction," he said
Victor Ruilova, the economist in charge of the report.
After the inflationary peak in March of 4.8%, the Central Bank deepened the exchange rate anchor to moderate prices.
Thus, the rise in the wholesale dollar was less and less since January.
The exchange rate policy served to decelerate prices a bit, but without piercing the floor of 3% and with greater tensions
.
Today, the wholesaler is trading at $ 97.41 and the blue at $ 182, a gap of almost 87%.
Analysts surveyed by the BCRA estimate that
the peso will end at around $ 107 on average in December
, above the $ 102 predicted by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán.
This represents an annual increase of 27% compared to an inflation of between 45 and 50%.
"
This implies that the currency would accumulate a bilateral real appreciation of 11% against the dollar throughout 2021
, as a consequence of the exchange rate anchor executed since the first quarter of the year," said Sebastián Menescaldi, director of EcoGo.
The consultants agree, however, that the level of the real exchange rate will continue to be higher than in other recent years.
"
Despite the readjustment of the currency, the real exchange rate also remains high
, being 15% higher than the average observed since 2005 to date," said Menescaldi.
Along the same lines, Ecolatina estimates that the dollar has appreciated more than 9% since December 2020 and that "it would continue to lose competitiveness."
"However, despite the appreciation of this election year,
this measure of exchange rate competitiveness would still be more than 20% above the average levels of 2016-17
, recent years of high exchange rate appreciation, said Juan Pablo Albornoz, consultant analyst.
What will happen after the elections?
The scenario would be different after the elections
, when the anchor is expected to rise.
That was what happened in the last legislative elections.
"
They are delaying the exchange rate and what happens next is that in the summers after the elections that you did that or you lost a lot of reserves or you had to devalue
," Ruilova explained.
After the 2005 legislatures, there was no devaluation, but Nestor Kirchner paid US $ 9.5 billion in cash to the IMF, which impacted reserves.
In 2009, there were no surprises because the readjustment came earlier due to the financial crisis.
In 2013, on the other hand, the nominal exchange rate rose 28.4%,
a plan that included devaluation and rate hikes
, and in 2017, there was a jump of 15.7%
.
Thereupon,
l
to consulting projects a quote of $ 171 for the
end of 2022, an increase of 60%. The diagnosis is that the "tie" should be released to strengthen the BCRA.
Last year's run reduced net reserves by US $ 4.5 billion
, while the current intervention on the parallel market has already consumed about US $ 1.5 billion.
On the other hand, until next March almost US $ 12,000 million must be disbursed between the Paris Club and the IMF, a sum that would not be covered with the current net reserves and the US $ 4,334 million SDR that arrived today from the IMF.
And with a view to an agreement with the agency, the board is expected to request a reduction in the exchange rate gap and accumulate reserves.
In short, a higher dollar
.
AQ
Look also
Argentina received US $ 4,334 million from the IMF that would be used to pay debts
With the blue dollar at $ 182, the Central Bank reinforces reserves with the arrival of the IMF SDR
