Enlarge image
FDP leader Christian Lindner
Photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka / DPA
It's been a good ten years since the FDP suffered an even bigger crash after a major election victory.
In 2009, the then party leader Guido Westerwelle had achieved a double-digit result with the promise of a massive tax cut.
But the only thing that was left of the pithy promises in the subsequent black and yellow government was a small tax gift for hoteliers.
And so the party was kicked out of the Bundestag four years later.
Such a debacle, promised Westerwelle's successor Christian Lindner, "should never happen again."
If everything is not wrong, it is Lindner himself who is making the old mistake again these days.
After the election, the FDP will reduce taxes and national debt at the same time, the party leader announces, who wants to become finance minister.
In interviews he speaks of »targeted impulses through relief in taxes and duties«, and in the election program there is talk of a "redemption turbo" when reducing corona loans.
And similar to 2009, the polls signal that the courageous announcements are also bringing votes to the Liberals.
After the debt surge from Corona, the coffers are empty
Even a cursory glance at the federal government's budget data shows that both are impossible at the same time. If Lindner sticks to his promises, he will only have the choice after September 26th whether he wants to go down in the financial and political history of the republic as a tax or debt liar. The voters, however, to whom the FDP recommends itself these days as a party of economic and financial common sense, are likely to disapprove of both. A product disappointment is on the horizon, the political consequences of which could be as serious as in the final phase of the Westerwelle era.
In truth, the public coffers are empty after the debt surge in the corona years, and it is not to be expected that they could miraculously fill up again in the next few months. No less a person than Chancellor Helge Braun pointed this out some time ago. He had written that anyone who does not want to increase taxes and levies after the pandemic must continue to suspend the debt brake "with otherwise strict spending discipline". And, as he added in a realistic assessment of the situation, "for years to come".
Otherwise, the federal government will soon have to provide 20 billion euros annually for the repayment of the newly taken out loans, according to experts, and this at a time when the Federal Audit Office (BRH) is warning of a "huge fiscal challenge". Specifically, the BRH experts have identified a financial gap of almost 40 billion euros in the budgets of the next few years, and that does not even include the foreseeable deficits in the ailing social security funds. Without "decisive measures to stabilize the income and expenditure side," the auditors judge, the federal government will "be dependent on loans above the debt ceiling for an indefinite period of time."
But that does not prevent Lindner from promising the rapid reduction of corona debts and at the same time a series of tax cuts in the FDP election program: from the complete end for solos, lower corporate and income taxes to the abolition of state taxes on sparkling wine , Beer or coffee. According to the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research, the FDP's plans to relieve the burden on private households alone would cost almost 90 billion euros; and that such loss of income is financed by itself through more growth is nothing more than a pious wish. Even if, for example, the FDP concept of lowering corporate income tax boosts investment and employment, as the Liberals expect, the state will go short,between seven and 14 billion euros are lost annually in the medium and long term. This was recently determined by the Munich-based Ifo Institute. A think tank that is by no means opposed to lower taxes for companies or citizens.
Nevertheless, the results of the studies show: The FDP's plans for taxes, debts and public finances are far removed from any reality, and the disproportion cannot be resolved by the fact that Lindner has meanwhile announced that it will not want to implement all promises in one fell swoop.
The truth is: Even a step-by-step solution that has recently been talked about would cost a lot of money that the federal government does not have.
Lindner can still correct his missed promises
The objection that the programs of the other parties are also improperly calculated is just as irrelevant. Certainly: How the CDU intends to pay for its announced modernization offensive remains just as unclear in the election campaign as the financial basis of the SPD pension guarantee, and yet the deficit in the case of the Liberals is particularly significant. On the one hand, the discrepancy between aspiration and reality is particularly large among the Free Democrats. On the other hand, no party has announced so aggressively that it will take responsibility for the state finances after the election. Those who do this also have to put up with being measured particularly thoroughly against their own requirements.
Lindner still has the chance to correct his unrealistic promises. He could either admit that more government loans will be needed in the future in order to be able to lower taxes as announced. Or he could declare adherence to the debt brake a political priority, which is why, unfortunately, no major relief, but instead consistent savings in the state subsidy and social budgets are necessary. Ultimately, this requires another guiding principle to which the FDP feels particularly committed, according to the election manifesto: a "solid and investment-oriented budget policy".
Instead, there is now a growing danger that Lindner will find himself caught in the Westerwelle trap after the election - and have to break his central election promises. At that time, after the rise, there was a long period of decline, for which Lindner once coined the appropriate word: "shadowy years".