Annabella quiroga
09/03/2021 2:21 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/03/2021 2:21 PM
In the phase prior to the elections, the Central Bank allocates an average of
US $ 100 million a day to control the price of the different types of dollars
and keep the exchange rate in the convenient range so that the pressure on prices will ease.
So far this week the Central has allocated
US $ 340 million
to supply market demand, given an offer that begins to thin after the end of the high liquidation phase by agriculture.
Thus, this intervention of the monetary authority in the Single Free Exchange Market (MULC) averages
US $ 85 million
per day this week.
To this must be added the currencies that the Central uses to buy and sell bonds with which to intervene in the financial dollar market - with liquid or CCL, which allows foreign currency to be withdrawn from the country, and the MEP, the operation to buy currencies in the Buenos Aires stock market.
In this last item,
between US $ 15 million and US $ 20 million are spent each day,
according to market estimates.
Thus, in the final stretch towards PASO, the Central consumes
US $ 100 million
to keep the currency as an inflationary anchor.
This Friday the wholesale dollar is trading at
$ 97.88
, five cents above Thursday, and is up 32 cents for the week.
While the Government slightly lifts the foot of the brake so that the official exchange rate rises seven cents more than last week, the blue dollar recovers and rises one peso.
It is trading at $ 182 and places the gap at 85%.
With this, the blue closes its
fourth week
trading in a range of $ 180.50 to $ 182. This stability of the informal, which historically tends to be more volatile in the run-up to the elections, is related in part to the distance of 11 pesos that took savings from the dollar, which sells for
$ 170
in the average bank.
This gap of 11 pesos makes it more convenient for small savers seeking to dollarize to buy the savings dollar than to go to the blue.
This reverses the equation that occurred in the first semester, when
blue was the cheapest on the market.
To this is added that the Central's intervention in the segment of financial dollars makes them more convenient than blue.
With successive restrictions, the CCL market was divided into two circuits.
In the "official" segment trading at
$ 172.8
, up 1.2% probably to the end of the day ,
when the Central selling intervene to prevent the $ 171 Exhaust ronde.
But as this segment has many restrictions for companies, another circuit is promoted, SENEBI, where private parties negotiate with each other, without official intervention.
Although there the price is higher -around $ 176-, it is still
up to five pesos cheaper than the $ 181 of the blue dollar.
Country risk falls
Country risk, the JP Morgan indicator that measures the excess rate that Argentina should pay to borrow, continues to fall this Friday.
It yields 0.2% and reaches
1,477 basis points.
In the three business days that go this month, it
fell 2.8%
, which brings it to levels that it showed almost three months ago.
In any case, the country risk continues to be 7.7% above the 1,400 points it exhibited at the beginning of the year.
On the side of the actions, the day again shows losses as happened in the last three wheels.
The Merval falls 0.5% and in New York Argentine shares are trading mostly down, with declines of up to 4% for IRSA.
AQ
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