Annabella quiroga
09/08/2021 12:07
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/08/2021 12:16
Four days after STEP, the blue dollar advanced one more box.
It is already trading at
$ 185, an advance of three pesos in the last 24 hours.
With this, the exchange gap with respect to the wholesale dollar reaches 89% and is just two points below the peak of 91% that it had reached in July.
The market is waiting for how the Central Bank will move today, which yesterday had to part with US $ 90 million to prevent the official dollar from escaping.
In this way, it has already sold
US $ 320 million
in five business days in September and about US $ 800 million in the last two weeks.
The blue dollar had peaked at $ 195 in October of last year.
That overshooting led to the exchange gap touching 150%.
From there it fell to the beat of the greater restrictions that the Government added to the financial segment.
The informal rose to $ 185 in mid-July and brought the gap to 91%.
But in August it stabilized around $ 180/182.
It seemed that the calm would extend, but a few days before the elections the highest dollarization was felt and three pesos jumped from one wheel to another.
The greed for coverage in the face of the elections, with the prospect of further devaluation towards the end of the year, put pressure on the market at various levels.
"The market expects that there will be a correction in the rate of depreciation of the peso against the dollar after the elections. This is reflected in
a jump from 25% to 50% in the rates implicit in Rofex in just 6 months
despite even the BCRA intervention in the futures market with short positions ", indicated from LCG.
In addition to the rise in the blue in the past you days there was a
sharp increase in dollar futures transactions
, which moved nearly US $ 600 million in the day.
On Tuesday, the volume traded in the cash segment reached
US $ 428 million
, while in the future dollar market,
US $ 54 million were
traded
through the Electronic Open Market (MAE) and
US $ 585 million
in the Rofex.
The abundant liquidation of foreign currency from agriculture kept the foreign exchange market oiled in the first part of the year, to the point that blue became the cheapest for those seeking to accumulate foreign currency.
Now that that offer begins to decline, the interventions of the Central rise, which loses dollars on several fronts.
"The BCRA has not been able to buy dollars for two weeks, rather the opposite. It would have sold
US $ 760 million
in that period," said economist Nery Persichini.
Although the
US $ 320 million
that the Central sold so far this month are far from the
US $ 500 million
that was released in the same period of last year, it must be taken into account that those sales occurred when they were still the stocks had not been reinforced.
Now a good part of the Central's sales go to cover imports, which would demand about
US $ 5.8 billion a month.
To this must be added the currencies that it uses to control the price of financial dollars.
The estimate of the consulting firm GRA is that in this way it will spend
US $ 15 million a day, about US $ 300 million a month.
Low country risk
The JP Morgan indicator that measures the over-cost of Argentine debt stands at
1,473 points
, 0.4% below the previous close.
Country risk reflects the rebound in dollar bonds, which advanced around 1% on Tuesday.
After yesterday's rally of Argentine stocks on Wall Street that rose 13%, today the entire panel is trading in the red, with losses of between 5 and 6% for banks.
The same happens in Buenos Aires, where the Merval index loses 2.9%.
AQ
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