Ignacio Zuleta
09/11/2021 12:01
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 9/11/2021 12:01
The elections this Sunday can consecrate another Argentineanism: that the least important is the result.
Nobody expects surprises outside the edges.
Political families are going to repeat, as every two years, the same drive to adhere to Peronism and non-Peronism.
On that board, everyone chooses their game.
Alberto Fernández has sought to
turn this election into a plebiscite of his administration
.
He knows that the fate of Peronism does not depend on its candidates - jokes, speeches, promises, lies told sincerely (Dolina) - but on its holding together.
In the toasts with governors whom he has visited in this campaign, he sets his objective: to lead Peronism to the first victory in midterm elections since 2005. Except in the turns in which there were presidential elections, Peronism lost because it was divided: 2009, 2013, 2019.
In this Alberto anticipates a celebration for
an alien crusade
: he is part of that virtuous unit of Peronism that encrypted his return to national power in 2019, but not the only owner.
It is a collective merit of their strength.
His celebration of a triumph this Sunday in the sum of the votes of the whole country will not be worth more than that of Francisco de Narváez in 2009, when he beat Kirchner, Scioli and Massa, in three in a row - in addition to Nacha Guevara, who he still sings to us - in the elections to national deputies.
It was not Francisco, who today is not known where he is: it was the society on which an ingenious character rode, to the point of being one of the few who in this profession has won silver votes.
Predictable in a country where
leaders celebrate the arrival of snow as if they had invented the winter holidays
, and ask to be thanked.
Macri, the Cristina of Peronism
The election by the government of Mauricio Macri as a contradictor sought to exploit his negative side in public opinion.
But it repeats the strategy of Cambiemos in 2017-2019: Cristina was chosen as an adversary, believing that the demonization of her figure would drag Peronism into disrepute.
This strategy appears as the main error of that government, which
did not read the 2017 result correctly
.
Also predictable in a country where politicians know what they represent, but not who they represent.
Mauricio Macri, for Zoom, in the closing of the campaign by Mario Negri and Gustavo Santos in Córdoba.
They tend to speak to other people's electorates, hoping to break their convictions. A useless expense. In 2019 the Argentina of the flag voted for the Macri-Pichetto formula in 5 of the 7 largest districts, which still lost.
That public is vaccinated with Peronism.
Just like that of the Peronism of Buenos Aires, it supported with 37% of the votes a Cristina burned in court. It was something that did not affect her in her electorate.
Analysts also have to review their perceptions: they build scenarios and prophecies about the most important election in history (?) As if the debates on cable programs with 2 audience points reflect the reality of the country that is going to 24 elections, with
a logic of its own in each district
.
Banks are advised by KYC - Know your customer - to avoid crime.
Politicians should apply it.
Cristina vs.
the peronism of the interior
It may be a mistake to ignore that the name of Macri continues to mean something to the moderate public in the center, which decides the elections in the large districts: it will be another qualitative verification of the elections. For this reason,
each of the chiefs of the presidential trifecta has set a goal
for this turn.
Cristina seeks to resignify herself as the leader of a non-Pejotist Peronism.
She recalled in Tecnópolis that the Peronism of the Senate had left her alone and had allowed them to raid her as a senator.
It differentiated itself from Peronism in the province of Buenos Aires, just the district where that force has more power.
So much so that it allowed him to
impose unique lists in all the positions in dispute
, at the cost of weakening the strength of Máximo as the new president of the party seal that Fernando Gray disputed.
Except in 25 Buenos Aires parties, where there is a dispute at the municipal level, the rest are a single list.
The effort is to maintain a sum of votes higher than that which Santilli and Manes can collect.
for the opposition.
Even so, the challenge is to repeat an impossible, the 17 points of difference that Peronism achieved in the 2019 PASO against Vidal.
Cristina, rebound, alienated the affection of the Peronism of the interior.
He barred Miguel Pichetto - the guardian of his privileges so that he would not be arrested, a detail - for voting laws against Macri.
A gross error: Pichetto as head of the bloc in the Senate until 2019 was
the representative of Peronism in the interior
and, together with Sergio Massa in Deputies, represented the league of governors in all negotiations with the central power and the provinces.
Remembering with anger
The dialectic between
the Peronism of the interior and that of the AMBA articulates the relations in the ruling party
.
As it was in the '80s between renewal and orthodoxy, in the' 90s between Menemism and Duhaldism and in the first decade of the century between Duhaldo-Kirchnerism and the interior.
For not understanding it, Cristina lost in 2015 nothing less than with Scioli as a candidate.
You had to want to lose, unless it was a strategic error by Olivos, who stuck to Zannini and Aníbal.
That Peronism rose to the table in Córdoba (Schiaretti, Massa, Urtubey, Pichetto, Lavagna) as a renewal against the Christianity of the AMBA.
Dynamising this league was the necessary objective to recover the unity of the party, in the heat of the crisis of macrismo since April 2018 (funeral agreement with the IMF).
There is
reason for Cristina's concern
: if Peronism loses seats in the Senate, it will lower the value of its shares in the presidential society and it will be weaker in the face of the adversaries of whom it must fear the most, Alberto and Massa.
They exist in contrast to it.
Saving Private Murphy
The time-trial change of the regulation of the PASO de JxC in the CABA expresses the idea of the ruling party that there
could be a flight of votes
in favor of the option of Javier Milei, if Ricardo López Murphy was left out of the candidacies by application of parity of genre.
It is a mistake to do politics by looking at polls;
worse still is to ignore them altogether.
They replace with slippery metrics the lack of smell and / or prophetic vision, alternative attributes of the good politician.
The argument for preventing this open window is that the preachers of economic orthodoxy - Milei, Espert, Cachanosky, formerly Melconián, etc.
- They install with professional wit (they are informed intellectuals and effective communicators)
slogans that confront the ruling party
.
This explains the fascination of the militant animators - some even treat Milei as "Javi", with the kindness of a Victor Hugo towards Cristina.
It also justifies the sponsorship of sectors of interest without which the militant screens (of the ruling party and the opposition) cannot be explained.
The mistake of eating the polls
The
naivety of politicians and businessmen towards the pollsters' prophecies
is remarkable
.
There are still those who cry at the wall of disappointment in 2015, when they believed that JxC could win the presidential PASO or that the result would lead the country to a moderately competitive ballot.
Macri himself, in the book of his memories of those hours, confesses that little less than they deceived him with those forecasts.
With the intention of preventing the loss of votes for the right -there were many or few, it will be seen this Sunday- the representatives of the 15 parties of the JxC coalition crammed between Wednesday and Thursday in a negotiation of a new protocol that would rescue him from the Private López Murphy.
Ricardo López Murphy., Competes in the Juntos por el Cambio internship, Photo: Twitter
In the barracks on Calle Balcarce they negotiated a simple system to save him from that
crusher of machirulos
that is the gender parity law.
It is the same system of male-female alternation in the lists that can produce an unexpected displacement of the loser of the PASO of Peronism in Santa Fe - Rossi or Lewandowski.
The magician of the Juntos regulation in the province of Buenos Aires was Manuel Terradez, who devised an ingenious gang mechanism to assign positions in pairs, according to the number of votes cast by the Santilli and Manes lists.
Saved them from the effects of the mixer.
Two styles: dedazo vs.
negotiation or death
In CABA, the negotiation was made by three names who do not sign the act - reserved for party authorities: Fernando Straface - campaign manager for Vidal's list, Mariano Genovesi, attorney-in-fact for the UCR and Fernando Sánchez, Lilita's equal eye.
The conversation that occupied them for most of the week has a syntax that should be retained, because it describes in a small way a construction method that is characteristic of the opposition coalition throughout the country: everything is discussed here.
It is
what gives life to non-Peronism
, just as the finger gives life to Peronism, which does not pose a crisis for parity: it has assumed it and they accept what is lowered as a slogan.
The opposing league is so horizontal that
there is no leadership that can dominate all the tribes
.
Of the three central parties, only the Coalition has an undisputed leadership, which is Elisa Carrió.
The PRO and the radicals are relentlessly debating positions of hegemony that will emerge from this year's elections.
Until it is known who won or lost the PRO, it will be pulled between Macri, Larreta, Vidal and Bullrich.
And the radicalism between Nosiglia and Morales, Negri or Cornejo.
And his vicars, like Lousteau or Manes.
The other slogan is: you have to give certainty to the result.
If we leave López Murphy in limbo due to the eventual application of parity, we offer our electorate a gray area.
Let us now clarify that we want López Murphy on the list of candidates, and let him enter.
Does someone from the PRO or the UCR sacrifice himself?
Fernando Iglesias trembles, who would have to leave the place to López Murphy if the chosen method is put into operation: the candidature mixer must guarantee 1) gender parity and 2) the original order of the list.
The majority list yields positions so that the minority is not postponed.
But the minority pays for that transfer by submitting a bid from below for the exchange.
The objective, that the public does not say that they voted one thing and another comes out.
D'Hont + Gender Parity = Kryptonite
It's easy to say, but the competitors signed up with a regulation and changed it at the last minute. It is not a closed plot yet, even after the election. The regulation
is an agreement between the parties that make up the coalition
. The PRO, the UCR and the CC have reached these new regulations, but if any applicant feels affected, they can take legal action because the rules were changed after the closing of lists.
If a person, with the new regulation, is displaced by the incorporation of López Murphy, they have action to claim.
This negotiation is supported by the idea that the rules of the PASO are set by the parties.
And until the time of the primaries, the benches belong to the parties.
After the elections, the seats belong to the candidates.
That is why it was necessary to negotiate against the clock and with the corset of a complicated legality, which mixes components that it is better to have controlled, such as drugs or explosives.
The mixture of the D'Hont system and parity is kryptonite, joked one of the negotiators for the rescue of Private Murphy.
AQ
Look also
Contacts between the Government and the opposition to agree at what time the first results of the PASO will be published
Elections STEP 2021: Judge Servini appoints judicial overseers to control the provisional scrutiny
