Gustavo Bazzan
09/13/2021 4:42 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/13/2021 4:42 PM
The result of the STEP is already beginning to be digested.
For the market, with
at least initial euphoria.
Likewise, it is already known that investors vote every day.
But it is obvious that the poll data went down well.
The consultants who look a little beyond the quotes
were filled with questions,
or uncertainty.
It is because they are beginning to wonder
how the ruling alliance will react
to a defeat that seemed difficult to imagine, at least because of its magnitude, just at noon on Election Sunday.
The euphoria and the questions have a point of intersection.
If the answers given by the Government from here to November 14
disappoint,
today's rise could be tomorrow's collapse.
The paradox is posed as a question:
can the government do something to improve its electoral chances without the markets seeing it as a dreaded
“radicalization”
?
Will the
Instituto Patria
accept
any dose of orthodoxy, right now?
Hard.
Furthermore, the Government faces the two months until the November 14 elections with
exchange rate uncertainty
and a thin cushion of really usable reserves.
It is known that at election time, the dollar issue comes to the fore.
On Monday the blue fell a few cents. It will last?
A recurring theme, which appears as a priority, is the
agreement with the Monetary Fund
.
It has been said, informally, that there is little left, that it is close.
Analysts do not believe it
, but if so, under what conditions would it be signed.
Hard Kirchnerism will accept it.
Can you go ahead without agreement?
For
Andrés Borenstein,
from the Econviews consultancy, Alberto Fernández does not have it easy.
“I don't think they can avoid an agreement with the IMF.
Because without money, radicalization can end very badly.
We must not lose sight of the fact that this Government has two years of mandate left.
Anything can happen in the next two months,
but then it seems to me that they don't have many options ”.
In the midst of the rumors of spare parts in the Cabinet, and specifically of the position of Minister of Economy, Borenstein asks for calm.
“Ideally, Martín Guzmán follows him
because he already has many discussions under way.
But at this point I'm not sure of anything. "
Fernando Marengo
is part of the management of
Ricardo Arriazu's
consultancy
.
Arriazu, last week, had hinted, although he personally
did not believe it,
that the markets were rising due to a rumor that said that after the STEP
“Sergio Massa would take over as Chief of Staff and Martín Redrado as Minister of Economy”.
It will be seen what is true.
Perhaps the answer will come in the next few hours, or it never will.
But Marengo, beyond that rumor, drew this picture.
“Before the elections, I had been saying that there were
two scenarios
, one of disagreement with the IMF, followed by an economic, social and political crisis.
The other scenario was according to the IMF and this implies
tariff adjustment, controlled capital spending and definition of exchange policy ”.
That said, Marengo acknowledges that had to wait for
the response of the market to the stage of the agreement:
"we must see whether or not builds confidence
."
In the first case, he says, the Government is tied to the agreement with the IMF, but
the recession in 2022 is eaten with strong social pressure.
"It may also be that he signs with the IMF but deviates from the goals, asks for a waiver but runs out of resources to finance the greater deficit generated by the relaxation of the adjustment."
Marengo concludes: "To define this, I think we have to wait a few days to see
who will take charge of the Executive from today, Alberto or Cristina or Massa and Peronism?
I think that will define what scenario we will go through in the future.
There is another question
.
What will the opposition,
winner at the polls, but without executive responsibilities do?
An economic leader from Together for Change, who asked not to be named, reflected on
Clarín's
query
.
"I do not see the Government making a
drastic turn,
I believe that from here to the elections they will spend and issue, I do not imagine that they will accelerate the discussions with the IMF in these two months nor do I think that the IMF itself is interested in hurrying."
Regarding a possible call for dialogue, the source said: “They would have to convene with a serious and credible economic program.
If so, we will be "
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