Silvia Naishtat
09/19/2021 19:01
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 09/19/2021 19:01
Diana Mondino, 62, is an economist graduated from the National University of Córdoba, with international degrees and experience as a member of the board of several companies.
He was from Grupo Pampa and currently sits on the board of Loma Negra.
Interviewed by
Clarín,
she referred to the impact of this major political crisis on the economy, how inflation can lower, and she elaborated on the negotiations with the IMF.
When asked about the exit for Argentina, she did not hesitate:
"It is export.
We have the products that the rest of the world needs and is already used to buying from us. There are the markets, we will have to try to recover them and we have logistics and infrastructure which is suboptimal, but it exists. Export is the way out. "
-How does such a political crisis impact the economy?
-Usually, the economy depends on politics.
In the sense that economics is the science of scarce resources and politics is the one that defines what would be the best allocation based on the definitions, precisely, of politics.
In this case, the roles are being reversed.
The economy is in such a tight spot that from a political point of view there is very little that can be done.
This is shown in the government, possibly, to trace the result of the elections, which would probably be more spending, more social assistance, has difficulties due to the urgent need to contain spending.
-How is spending contained with this level of poverty?
-Stop lying.
-What does it mean?
-The main items of expenditure are not linked to social assistance.
Excluding ANSES, where discretion should be very little, where there should be no arbitrariness in the increases, or in who receives the benefits, all the rest, where the government, if it has the capacity to make decisions, is not fundamentally linked to poverty. .
If we want to reduce poverty, I think we should place a strong emphasis on the infrastructure that facilitates work, which is education, health.
In other words, allow people to be prepared and trained to work.
And there should be a lot less emphasis on subsidies.
In Argentina three to four times more is allocated to subsidies than to social aid.
-Some economists maintain that these subsidies return to the people, regardless of the pro-rich bias ...
-They are subsidies for transport, energy and public companies.
In other words, not a subsidy that goes directly to the people.
On the other hand, in a situation of poverty, it is not possible to continue giving subsidies without conditions.
It is essential that there be conditionalities again.
A little for fairness and justice and a little to promote work and that there are no imbalances with those who are working.
-What do you call conditionalities?
-That the person has to be trained in something, that the person has to show up for some jobs, that the person cannot refuse jobs.
That the person cannot have more than X number of plans, that his family group cannot have a total income greater than XX, that kind of thing.
It seems inconceivable to me in the computer age that the government cannot know that a person has 3 or more benefits.
-Let's return to the issue of subsidies, they were criticized by Minister Guzmán ... However, there is no progress with the segmentation of rates, why do you think that happens?
-There should be no discrimination based on rates.
1 kilowatt is 1 kilowatt.
If you want to help someone, you have to pay the true cost of electricity, gas or any service and you are given an amount that is considered reasonable to cover a minimum, basic consumption that a family may have.
But it cannot be that the subsidy is a function of consumption levels.
Say, it doesn't make any sense.
A married couple with a lot of money in Recoleta consumes very little, they have little gas consumption, which is totally subsidized.
A family with 5 children, who do not have a mango to go out, spends a lot cooking.
The segmentation cannot be given by the level of consumption, it must be given by the economic situation of the family.
-How is it solved?
- X amount of money is given to the family and will assign it, if you want, to this.
And on the other hand, make no mistake, the villas do not have sewers.
And most of the country does not receive these subsidies, they are only received in certain geographic locations, in and around Buenos Aires.
I am in Córdoba and the electricity and the bus are paid triple.
-The 2022 Budget involves a negotiation with the Fund since it does not contemplate payments ...
-Moment, it is assumed that you are not going to pay, we do not know if it is because we negotiate with the IMF or because we do not pay you directly.
It is rude to put into a budget, where it does not even figure what one would want to do with the Fund.
The hypothesis of the payment to the Fund and the situation that it would generate should be established.
But you cannot directly not consider it.
- Do you think an agreement is likely?
-Each minute that passes the agreement with the Fund is more difficult.
A little for our own political issues;
another little because the level of deficit that we have continues to be high and it is not being seen that there is a great effort to reduce it.
And above all because the Fund is not only related to Argentina and cannot let a wayward person pass by who does what he wants.
-Is there room for not closing an agreement?
-A bad situation with the Fund and with any other creditor does not suit the country. Argentina cannot be isolated from the rules of the world game. Especially that we are going to continue with a deficit for a while and we do not have any access to financing. But the government has always talked about capital and interest. As far as I know, renegotiations, when there are any, the capital is refinanced. Once a country issued debt, it must continue to maintain, being able to pay interest, eventually, reduce the debt a little. When they started the negotiation, they started saying I don't want to pay so, clearly, the public or private creditor of a multinational or the kiosk on the corner says, well, pay everything. I could have said I cannot pay, that is very helpful and during the pandemic a huge effort was made with dozens of countries. Argentina,Instead of taking the same attitude that other countries took to say look, not now, wait a little for the pandemic to pass. Argentina said ah, nothing.
-How is inflation lowered?
-I see an extremely gradual process. It terrifies me more and more that the decision or the only solution ends up being extremely draconian. Today there is high emission, more silver in the economy and fewer products to buy, and one of the products that everyone wants is the dollar. As there is more silver to buy less things, the price of everything rises, also that of the dollar. Unless there is a much higher level of production, you cannot have more amount of pesos in the economy. And, with a deficit, there is no other way than to have more pesos in the economy. I see a very big relative prices problem, we have had rates frozen for two years, we have Care Prices, among other distortions. You can make a substantial reduction in taxes, especially in sectors with back prices. 100 electricity is paid, of which 50 are taxes.It could double what the electricity producer receives and that people do not notice it in their pocket. And in turn subsidies go down.