Juan Manuel Barca
Updated 9/19/2021 9:52 PM
After the crisis opened by the forced change of cabinet and Cristina Kirchner's criticisms of fiscal policy, the Government will advance this week with
emergency measures to rebuild income
and try to recover the votes lost in the PASO.
The announcements will be announced after the inauguration of the new ministers scheduled for this Monday.
The official package includes the revision of the minimum wage to bring
the agreed increase from 35% to about 45%.
in installments similar to those of Now 12 for non-bank cards
for more than 1 million registered wage earners and a
$ 6,000 bonus for retirees
and pensioners who collect up to two minimum salaries
is also being evaluated
Another measure under study is
not to apply the cap to retirements set by the mobility formula
approved in 2020. Although the registered salaries and the list of beneficiaries are taken into account to calculate the increase, the total collection of ANSeS sets the limit for increases in assets.
The idea is to make an exception in December.
"Progress is being made in the measures," they assured from the economic team.
From ANSeS, meanwhile, they have
not yet confirmed whether there will be a new IFE-style bond,
as was initially considered at the request of sectors close to La Cámpora.
That measure is
resisted by Guzmán
, who maintains that last year's restrictions on circulation are already in force.
This additional spending of $ 70,000 million
This additional spending of $ 70,000 million
will still leave the government with fiscal margin thanks to the savings of the Minister of Economy, who was in the sights of the vice president.
In his letter, he asked the President to sit down with Martín Guzmán to review the Budget sent last Wednesday and
accelerate the execution of spending, which implies an extra injection of $ 550,000 million.
In the first seven months, Guzmán executed 0.7% of the original goal of 4.2% of the primary deficit in 2021 (now, estimated at 4%).
The August data that will be known this Monday would give a cumulative of 1%, so there would be 3.2 points remaining with respect to the initial calculation.
And if the current pace were maintained,
the primary red would close closer to 3%.
"Cristina Kirchner is
publicly asking for a change in the economic strategy
that would imply, specifically and according to our fiscal projections, an increase in public spending compared to Guzmán's plan of approximately 1.3 percentage points of GDP, which is equivalent to about $ 550,000 million extra until the end of the year, "said consulting firm Invecq.
Different views persist within the government.
While the economic team assures that the Economy will use all the available spending in line with the roadmap set by the Budget, other official sources doubt
whether it is possible to execute 100% of the planned items between now and November.
In this context, the government managed to compute almost 1% of the extra GDP of resources in pesos through a decree issued this Saturday.
The measure allows the IMF SDR to be incorporated into the 2021 Budget as current resources, authorizes the Treasury to issue a non-transferable bill to the Central Bank and obtain foreign exchange to pay the IMF.
The Ministry of Economy clarified this Sunday that "the DNU establishes the issuance of a Non-transferable Bill that allows improving the composition of the financing of the National Treasury
, without the DNU modifying the budgeted primary expenditure
And the Treasury will allocate the $ 422,174 million for the sale of SDR to the BCRA to cancel Transitory Advances for that amount.
These advances are one of the channels of monetary assistance to the Treasury.
This monetary issue and its use are already almost at the limit of the regulatory ceiling, so the use of the SDR
will give the Treasury room
to once again use the funds of the monetary authority to finance the fiscal deficit and eventually expand spending on the last months.
The concern among economists is about the impact that this expansion of resources could have before the final elections.
"If they wanted to go beyond the budgetary and monetary restrictions, they could put the gap and inflation in check, that's why Guzmán has the current deficit rhythm," said Lucio Garay Méndez, an analyst at EcoGo.
Looking ahead to 2022, Economy said this Sunday that spending on energy tariff subsidies will be 1.5% of GDP, below the 2.5% expected for this year according to private calculations.
This will be achieved with the end of Resolution 46. which established a subsidy for gas producers;
savings in imports due to infrastructure works;
and the segmentation of tariff subsidies.
In August, the state deficit fell due to the sharp increase in tax revenue
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