The Social Security deficit will be smaller than expected this year and will decrease significantly in 2022, thanks to the combined effects of the economic recovery and the end of the health crisis, according to the draft budget presented by the government on Friday.
Adjust the accounts without saving money: the last Social Security budget of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term is also the first after Covid-19.
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The situation is a little less degraded than expected in 2021: the loss should amount to 34.6 billion euros, instead of the 38.5 billion feared in June, due to the "good recovery in activity" which boosts revenues, specify the Ministries of Public Accounts and Health.
And the balance will be "in clear improvement" next year, to 21.6 billion, mainly due to the "fall in crisis spending", the envelope of which is supposed to melt by around 10 billion in 2022.
A sharply lower deficit for 2022
Tests and vaccines should still cost 4.9 billion in 2022, or three times less than the 14.8 billion budgeted this year (also including additional hospital costs and work stoppages due to Covid).
However, this provision remains "estimated" and is not immune to a further slippage in the event of an epidemic resumption.
The bulk of the deficit will continue to weigh on the sickness branch (-19.7 billion), which will have to sustainably support the salary increases of the “Ségur de la santé”.
After a final round of revaluations in 2022, there is a total of 10 billion in long-term spending for which funding is not assured, since the branch will still be in deficit of 14.8 billion in 2025.
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Conversely, the family and accidents at work branches returned to surpluses this year (+1.7 billion and +1.3 billion respectively) and should continue to accumulate them (+5.4 billion and +2.5 billion in 2025).
The pension situation is more contrasted: the branch shows a stable deficit at 3.7 billion this year (instead of the 4.4 billion forecast in June) then down to 2.5 billion next year, but the trend is 'would reverse in 2023 and the loss would reach 7.6 billion in 2025.