This week the INE has lowered its growth estimate for the second quarter, which has led many analysts to also cut their economic forecasts for this year. Despite this, the First Vice President of the Government and Minister of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño (A Coruña, 52 years old), defends that the macroeconomic picture with the Government's forecasts to prepare the Budgets for 2022, with a GDP growth of 6, 5% this year and 7% next year is still valid. Calviño avoids answering whether he knew the review that the INE was going to do before presenting his forecasts. The vice president also points out that the economy will reach cruising speed in 2022 thanks to European funds since the Government will comply with the calendar of proposing a labor and pension reform before the end of the year.
Question
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The INE has lowered its estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter from 2.8% to 1.1%. Is the Government going to review its macroeconomic picture?
Answer
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In these three years of government there have been many upward and downward revisions.
We have always maintained a prudent position.
We did not revise upwards when the positive surprise of the INE advance occurred and, in light of the data we have, we do not see why we should revise now.
P
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Did you know when you presented the macro table that the INE was going to do this review?
R
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GDP is a very important indicator, but it has two main shortcomings: on the one hand, it does not adequately reflect key factors of economic progress, for example, on the environment, digitalization and social cohesion.
On the other, it has a certain delay due to its quarterly nature.
That is why I regularly present a table of complementary indicators in the green and digital sphere and a daily activity indicator, which incorporates all the relevant statistics that we have every day.
Based on this indicator, we anticipate that the level of daily activity prior to the pandemic will recover before the end of the year.
And the level of employment even earlier.
More information
The Government trusts that activity and employment will return to the precovid level before the end of the year
The INE reduces the government's euphoria about the recovery and calls into question the official forecasts
P
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The question was whether he already knew that the INE was going to do this review before presenting the macro table.
R
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The INE is an independent body and therefore will have to explain its methodology and why this review has taken place.
We have been taking a prudent position towards which all national and international organizations have tended to align.
P
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Was there a discussion in the Council of Ministers about the impact of this downward revision and that with it the macro picture was somewhat out of date?
R
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I cannot skip the secrecy of deliberation of the Council of Ministers.
P
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But you can tell if you knew in advance that there was going to be such a review.
R
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Frankly, in the Council of Ministers I made the presentation of the macro picture that was later made public at the press conference.
And I cannot say anything about the discussion of the Council of Ministers.
In recent weeks, all the comments we have received were that we should make upward revisions and we were questioned if we were being too cautious.
P
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Is it wise to Budget on an unrealistic macro picture?
R
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The macro picture of the Government is absolutely realistic, it is based on all the information available and endorsed by Airef and responds to the forecasts we have about the evolution of the economy in 2021 and 2022.
P
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When will quarterly GDP return to precovid level?
R
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In the first part of 2022. What we see clearly is that the year is going from less to more and that all forecasts indicate that Spain will be one of the engines of economic growth in Europe in these two years.
The collective success of the vaccination process has marked a turning point.
Therefore, our forecast is for strong growth from now on and in 2022 the economy will reach cruising speed with the Recovery Plan.
P
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Many countries have already reached their pre-pandemic level of activity.
Why is Spain the most behind schedule?
R
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The drop in our country's GDP was among the most intense in the EU due to the weight of the tourism sector and hospitality and proximity services, based on interpersonal relationships, which were the ones that suffered the most from the restrictions of the pandemic.
With the vaccination, expectations have improved and investment is boosting, and confidence has also returned to international tourism, which is so important to our economy.
P
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There are countries like Italy, France, where tourism is also important or some like Greece, Croatia, Cyprus or Malta with a higher weight of tourism than Spain and all are ahead.
R
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In some areas, for example job creation, Spain is ahead.
I insist that the fall in Spain's GDP has been higher than that of the rest of the countries.
If the fall in GDP is greater, it is evident that it takes longer.
What I can say is that the way out of this crisis is going to be very different from the previous financial crisis.
The measures we have taken since March of last year have allowed us to avoid a massive destruction of jobs and protect our productive fabric and family incomes.
And that will allow consumption and investment to recover much sooner and we will have a stronger and fairer recovery.
Nadia Calviño, during another moment of the interview.
INMA FLORES / EL PAIS
P
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What difficulties are there with Budgets?
Minister Ione Belarra said this week that the positions are far apart and has forced them to be delayed for at least a week.
R
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We are all aware of the importance of approving the General State Budgets for 2022. Just as it was essential to have the Budgets for 2021, to adopt effective measures to respond to the pandemic from the beginning of the year, I believe that all political groups are aware that we need the Budgets to continue channeling these European funds and promote the recovery and address all investments of a strategic and structural nature for our country.
That is why I am optimistic and I trust that everyone behaves responsibly and thinks about the well-being of the Spanish.
P
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Will you include tax increases in the budget?
R
. The most significant changes in the tax field must be addressed after an analysis that takes into account international trends, the debates on this matter that are taking place in Europe, the need to adapt our tax system to the reality of the 21st century, for example in the digital field or green taxation. We have formed an expert group that will publish its report in February and on this basis we will address the changes. We are not necessarily talking about raising taxes. We are talking about having a sufficient fiscal system to finance the welfare state that the Spanish want and that is fair. That does not prevent other adjustments in the Budgets, but the fiscal changes of substance must be addressed when we have the recovery well consolidated and the recommendations of the group of experts.
P
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United We can have warned that it links its support for the Budgets to the increase in corporate tax and the approval of the Housing Law.
R
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They are two different things.
Regarding corporation tax, it is part of a global debate.
In a few weeks, the president and I will go to Rome to the G-20 meetings, in which I hope an agreement will be reached for a new international tax framework, with a minimum rate of 15% of companies, to avoid competitive competition. low, which in the end impoverishes us all.
With regard to the Housing Law, our goal is to have it before the end of the year, but I think that one should not link some things to others.
P
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They go to Rome in two weeks to push the global tax.
Would it be reasonable for this rise in corporate tax to set a minimum of 15% to be reflected in the Budgets?
R
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Yes. It is an issue that we are defending internationally and that does not represent a significant change in our tax system.
P
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How much will the salaries of pensioners and civil servants go up?
R
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It will allow me, on the details, to wait for the presentation that the Minister of Finance will make in one or two weeks.
P
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An increase of 15 euros in the minimum wage has been agreed with the unions.
Are the 1,000 euros demanded by the unions going to be guaranteed for 2022?
P
. Our Government has increased the SMI by 30% since June 2018. I have always been clearly in favor of continuing to increase it, because it is an important instrument for reducing inequality and job insecurity, as long as it does not put the economic recovery at risk and job creation, especially in the case of the youngest who are the most vulnerable. Already in June I pointed out that if the labor market continued the good rhythm, we could resume the path of the SMI increase to reach the objective of 60% of the average salary in the legislature. The labor market data and the rate of affiliation are very positive, that gives us confidence to adopt a rise already for the last part of the year. With the international harmonized criterion, which is normally based on 12 monthly payments, we are already at 1,125 euros.
P
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He has had different views with the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, regarding the SMI, labor reform and other issues.
How is your relationship with her?
R
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I understand that there are those who have an interest in generating controversy, but we really have ahead as a country, as a society, challenges of great magnitude, such as climate change, digitalization, intergenerational justice, the deployment of an unprecedented recovery plan ... and I really think we have to focus on what's important
P
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How much of the 7 billion direct aid package has already reached the beneficiaries?
R
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The pace of execution is very uneven.
Among the different autonomous communities there are some that are going very fast, particularly the Balearic and Canary Islands, and there are others that are perhaps further behind.
There are some that have calls still open.
We have expanded the scope of the grants to allow those that still have available resources to be able to implement the maximum possible before the end of the year.
P
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Will Spain be able to spend 70,000 million of European funds in three years?
R
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It is an unprecedented challenge.
We have to make sure that the resources reach the entire territory, all the citizens, all the companies that we channel the investments towards the modernization of our productive fabric.
And for that we all have to row in the same direction: the administrations, the private sector, all the social agents, the political groups.
It is a country project that has to allow us to build a better future for our young people.
P
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It gives the impression in the shock plan to alleviate the rise in electricity, but also in the interprofessional minimum wage (SMI) or in the aid, that the Government has been a little in tow of the Podemos proposals.
Is that so?
R
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Absolutely.
The entire government is committed to the green agenda and the social agenda.
All members of the Government have expressed our commitment to continue increasing the SMI and to cushion the impact of prices in wholesale markets on the electricity bill of citizens.
Now, you have to make decisions after serious work, analyzing the different options and the possible consequences.
Reforms before the end of the year
P
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The calendar they have pending is dizzying.
They have to approve very important and controversial reforms in the next quarter.
Will they be able to meet the deadlines agreed with Brussels?
R
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The recovery plan concentrates the main reforms in the initial phase and gradually deploys investments.
It is essential that we take advantage of the window of opportunity in the coming months to tackle the most important ones.
Between now and the end of the year we will have to carry out the bulk of the reforms in the labor and pension sphere.
I believe that it is the collective interest of Spain that we do so as soon as possible so that there is legal certainty and that we can properly channel a strong, sustainable and fair recovery.
P
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But they are reforms of great political difficulty.
Its government partners or social agents have a different vision in many of the projects such as labor reform, pension reform, housing ...
P
. Throughout my career I have had many jobs considered by many to be "mission impossible" and in the end the objectives have been successfully achieved. I think that we are starting from a good base and that is that there is an agreement with the social agents on what are the issues that we have to agree on and on which we are going to work between now and the end of the year. In addition, we have the constructive attitude of the social agents. I think we are all aware that it is essential to reach a good agreement by the end of the year. It will be difficult? Definitely. Are the positions far apart? Definitely. We have a lot at stake and we have to get it right. It is important to have a labor framework that allows us to create quality employment, which reduces temporary employment and youth unemployment; Europeanize the Spanish labor market.
P
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How can an agreement for labor reform be achieved when the employer has described the Labor proposal as Marxist and the distribution employer has said that 500,000 jobs could be destroyed if it goes ahead?
R
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All the agents have publicly expressed their willingness to negotiate.
In fact, the Government has not yet put any formal proposal on the table to begin to channel the negotiation and reach the agreement.