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More than two euros for a liter: Expensive gasoline last week on the A7
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Julian Stratenschulte / dpa
The withdrawn VAT reduction, high costs of energy prices, expensive groceries: these are currently frequently cited reasons for the high inflation rate.
Many are less aware that rising consumer prices can also be driven by a psychological effect.
According to a study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), that is exactly what threatens. According to the economists, the fear of rising prices could further fuel inflation, as the study, which is available to the dpa news agency, shows.
It is true that consumer prices are currently mainly driven by temporary effects that are likely to expire in the coming year.
DIW economist Kerstin Bernoth now warns: "Danger threatens more from expectations."
If consumers and businesses assume that prices will continue to rise, “people will prefer purchases and demand higher wages.
The companies, in turn, will add to their prices if they expect to have to pay higher wages and higher producer prices, ”said Bernoth.
This behavior could set in motion a classic wage-price spiral that is based less on actual structural factors than on psychological dynamics.
"Higher inflation expectations could then become a self-fulfilling prophecy and drive actual inflation," warned Bernoth.
Consumer prices in Germany have recently risen sharply, with the inflation rate in September at 4.1 percent.
This was the first time in almost 28 years that the four percent mark was passed.
Experts even believe that an increase to five percent is conceivable in November.
Many people are already concerned about this high rise in prices.
However, the federal government has so far only considered it to be a temporary phenomenon - because wages have not yet increased accordingly.
Taxpayers' Association demands higher commuter lump sums
The DIW researchers also assume that inflation will only remain high for several months and weaken when the temporary effects subside.
The author Bernoth and her colleague Gökhan Ider also attribute the current sharp increase to one-off measures and events, such as the withdrawal of VAT reductions in Germany or the increase in energy prices after the collapse during the Corona crisis in 2020. In addition, there are delivery bottlenecks that are currently occurring drive up production costs.
The researchers also point out that service inflation, which accounts for two-thirds of core inflation (excluding food and energy prices), remains below one percent in the euro area.
In addition, the classic inflation drivers of wage pressure and consumption have so far developed moderately.
In many places, the consequences of rising prices are already serious.
Because of the high diesel prices, medium-sized companies are already talking about a massive burden on the economy that endangers jobs, growth and prosperity.
For consumers and commuters, in turn, additional relief is increasingly being demanded.
The commuter allowance must be increased to 40 cents from the first kilometer, demands the President of the Taxpayers' Association, Reiner Holznagel, in the »Augsburger Allgemeine«.
The flat rate has been 30 cents per kilometer for years.
Employees can claim them for tax on the way to work.
It is the same for everyone - regardless of whether they are traveling by car, train, bicycle or simply walking.
However, increasing the flat rate by just one cent would cost the state 230 million euros.
apr / dpa