These products are hard to come by before Christmas

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There is still a large selection in bookstores - but for how much longer?

Photo: George Clerk www.georgeclerk.com / Getty Images

It is one of the most popular gifts from German citizens. Maybe a bit nostalgic, given all the digitality out there. But perhaps precisely because of this, books seem ideal to many to put under the Christmas tree. However, if you want to give away particularly chic volumes made of high-quality paper this year, you could run into a problem: The book industry has been struggling with a lack of paper for months. It is difficult for publishers to reprint at short notice; whoever decides on a new edition today will not be supplied until next year. It's always too late for the Christmas business.

In particular, there is a lack of waste paper because less of it was generated during the corona crisis - companies stopped direct mail, newspaper subscribers switched to digital editions. But the rare commodity recovered paper is required for the production of book covers, for example. Pulp, an important part of paper, was also in short supply for a long time. The material was needed in many places, and there are also traffic jams on the world's oceans. Large publishers have therefore been trying for some time to get rid of special formats and to standardize them more and more so that only certain paper has to be stocked. Slight relaxation is expected in 2022.

The situation is not only difficult with books, the diversity is also in danger of being lost on many retailer shelves, on many exhibition spaces and even in hardware stores.

Ten weeks before Christmas, everything is missing in every nook and cranny, in all branches and trades.

Sometimes the goods get stuck in Asia, then higher freight rates eat up the margin, making imports uneconomical.

Sometimes the raw material is simply missing: semiconductors, hard plastic, wood.

How far-reaching the shortage economy has become is shown by a - deliberately incomplete - collection of scarce goods:

Perhaps the most sought-after scarce commodity is currently the

. "There's no chance of getting a Playstation 5 spontaneously," says someone who works for GameStop in Hamburg. Some of the mothers are the only ones who are still hopeful about his branch. He has to disappoint them: Although cardboard boxes are hanging on the wall, they are just decoration. Even persistent inquiries will at best put customers on a waiting list.

Sony's white system in science fiction optics has become an object of longing. Soon there could also be bottlenecks in retail for certain smartphones, tablets or printers, with graphics cards threatening moon prices. But the Playstation 5 is the boss of the gift seeker. Sony has already sold more than ten million copies worldwide, but the huge demand is panting almost a year after the market launch without a chance. Even those who switch to Microsoft's Xbox Series X have a hard time: Even with the top competitor, all warehouses are empty, at most the slimmed-down version Xbox Series S is in stock.

Washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, even vacuum cleaners: all sold out for weeks.

Because some factories were idle for weeks during the pandemic, but customers worked from home and diligently

ordered

on the sofa in the evenings

, manufacturers are chasing a huge excess demand.

In addition, there are problems with semiconductors, the scarcity of which is currently causing headaches for many industries.

The result: rising prices.

And long waiting times for customers.

It's unclear whether that will change anytime soon.

Actually these days the

-High season start. And in fact, there is already more going on in many shops. Only: there is always a shortage of goods. Container freight rates, which have increased tenfold within a year, make the business unprofitable for many importers, especially when it comes to cheap goods. Big brand manufacturers like Lego, Playmobil or Bruder are also fighting. Production is currently in full swing, says Paul Heinz Bruder, owner of the manufacturer of the same name. Nevertheless, he can hardly keep up with the processing of the orders. At Ravensburger, too, they warn: Of course there was no risk of empty shelves at the festival, but there could be a shortage of some coveted toys with electronic components. Even with wooden toys there are bottlenecks: The raw material is scarce and expensive due to the booming construction industry.

The major manufacturers of

adjust their customers to months of delays. Deliveries are currently delayed by up to ten weeks due to the bottlenecks on the container freighters, reports Thomas Klenk, Head of Purchasing at the Würth Group. At the screw specialist from Künzelsau, this primarily applies to standardized standard parts that are shipped from Asia. The company is now planning deliveries by the end of 2022 - but that may help in the future. When will it get better again? "This is currently not foreseeable," says Klenk. Bosch has made a similar statement and also speaks of "considerable delays" for many products.

The Würth manager fears that the need could even worsen. Because in some places in China the electricity is switched off for days due to a lack of coal, important raw materials for production are missing. The latest example is magnesium, which is required in the manufacture of aluminum parts, for example. Klenk doesn't even want to dare to predict when the supply chains will stabilize again.

When it

comes to

, manufacturers and dealers in particular are dependent on cheap models from imports from the Far East. "Hong Kong is the eye of the needle," says Guido Grohmann, Managing Director of the Federal Association of Jewelry and Watches. Traditionally, almost everything in the industry is shipped via the port of the former British colony. But because the products come from factories near the border with China, they first have to be driven to Hong Kong - a complicated undertaking, not only because of the pandemic, but also for political reasons.

Anyone interested in high-quality jewelry could go away empty-handed for another reason. After the end of the corona lockdown, the industry is experiencing a real run on business, reports Grohmann. Between May and June alone, sales in jewelry retail rose by 37 percent, according to association data. "Because there is currently less technical equipment available, people like to buy jewelry," supposes Grohmann. But if manufacturers want to expand production, they often lack the necessary machines. Several companies in the industry confirm this. After all, there is no shortage of raw materials in the jewelry industry, because metals such as gold and silver came almost exclusively from German or European recycling plants.

Borgfelde is not the prettiest part of Hamburg. In some streets there is a row of car dealerships, usually the

stand

close together. At Volkswagen, however, there is currently a yawning emptiness. A blue and a silver golf stand around abandoned. A sign, which usually shows the type designation and price, reads: “This vehicle has already been sold.” Eight such references are lined up next to each other - they are not needed because there is nothing to advertise.

The supply industry was hit particularly early and particularly severely, with more than 90 percent of companies complaining about procurement problems, according to the latest survey by the Ifo Institute. In some cases, it is only about higher prices for raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum and energy, as often occur in the course of economic fluctuations. On the other hand, there is real need when it comes to the supply of semiconductors. Several causes come together here.

Auto companies and suppliers underestimated how quickly demand recovered after the initial lockdown. At the same time, more semiconductors are installed in the new models with electric drive than in the old combustion engines. "The manufacturers overslept a bit," says Klaus Wohlrabe, deputy head of the Ifo Center for Macroeconomics. Because new semiconductor factories cannot be built in a hurry and new capacities can only be created with a long delay, the shortage of chips will cause problems for car companies at least in the coming year, some industry observers are already anticipating problems by 2023. Unfortunately, there will be no quick solution give, «it says.

Empty shelves, sold out wholesalers, delivery times for

lasting months

: the two-wheeler industry has been suffering from its own success since the beginning of the pandemic. Because people wanted to move around in the home office, avoided full subways and buses and the traffic turnaround with the booming e-bikes is already picking up speed in many cities, many considered investing in new bikes. Easier said than done. The two-wheel industry association is now experiencing the second Christmas business under pandemic conditions - and with the same omens. Goods are scarce, demand is high, which makes the products expensive. According to the association, customers should expect prices to be 10 to 15 percent higher in the coming year. And: if you can't wait months for your new bike, you just have to "take what's there".

Apparently, many amateur musicians are currently investing the vacation money they have saved in new

. The largest European dealer, Thomann, does not report any major abnormalities or even delivery problems with electric guitars, but gives delivery times of several weeks or even months - even for small parts. The company Warmoth, which specializes in guitar parts, warns its customers of long freight circles and apologizes for four to five days as a response time to e-mails. And the British electric guitar manufacturer Status Graphite, whose instruments can cost several thousand euros, is currently no longer accepting any orders because the order book is too full.

The component shortage is now also affecting the

industry, which is used to success: In the third quarter there was already a decrease in deliveries of six percent, reports Canalys. The market researchers therefore expect that there will not be as significant price reductions as usual on the American discount battle day Black Friday at the end of October. Companies that are already working with low profit margins advise them to lure consumers with free extras such as headphones instead of discounts.

Even if wall units are rarely found under the Christmas tree, one or two Billy shelves might have ended up there after all. If it weren't for the high freight rates and long shipping times that put the

business in dire straits. The range could "vary temporarily, especially in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region," writes Ikea Germany on request. "In view of this challenging situation, we hope that our customers will understand and thank them for their patience if their desired products are not currently fully available."

What sounds harmless is actually tantamount to a declaration of bankruptcy for one of the largest furniture dealers in the world.

After all, Ikea has already chartered ships, relocated transports from Asia to Europe by rail, increased all kinds of efficiencies in the system and thus increased transport capacity by a total of ten percent compared to pre-Corona.

Unfortunately, the rush is too big - or the warehouse is too small: All the effort “still wasn't enough to replenish the stocks of our entire range,” says Ikea.

In the meantime, even really important products are becoming rare,

such as

, walkers, oxygen

.

4.6 million people in Germany are in need of care, most of them are cared for at home by relatives. For a simple toilet chair, a kind of wheelchair with a toilet bowl under the seat, he now has to wait six weeks instead of the previous week, says Markus Wendler, "and such a chair is the most important aid in the home environment." Wendler is the owner of the Bielefeld aid supplier PVM. The entrepreneur waits just as long for rollators as he does for toilet chairs, and delivery times for mobile oxygen devices are now even three months.

The reason for the long waiting times is the production of many medical technology products, which is primarily concentrated in Asia. In addition, their basic materials such as plastic or steel have become scarcer and more expensive. For a rollator, according to Wendler, he receives a maximum of 80 euros from the health insurance companies. He used to be able to buy it for just under 40 euros, but he also had to take care of delivery, service and repairs. The price is now around 57 euros - if the manufacturers are still exporting to Europe. For many cheap products, an EU export is hardly worthwhile. In addition to the increased freight costs, since May the products have also had to be certified according to the new EU medical device regulation for patient safety, a consequence of the scandal surrounding defective breast implants.

According to Wendler, the regulation is well meant, but it is counterproductive for simple products.

"This involves questions about storage temperatures, which hardly play a role for products such as rollators." On the other hand, their quality and the associated service are now often so poor that they cannot even get spare parts.

"We are now repairing from our broken fragments."