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Floods in the Eifel in July
Photo: Christoph Hardt / imago images / Future Image
The German economy could suffer damage of 730 billion euros from climate change in the next 50 years if politics, business and the population do not take countermeasures in good time.
The Deloitte Economics Institute warns against this.
Without decisive countermeasures, the temperature will rise by three degrees worldwide, according to a study ahead of the World Climate Conference in Glasgow, which begins this weekend.
Using model calculations, the scientists at the management consultancy come to the conclusion that the consequences of this global warming would considerably slow down growth in Germany by 2070.
"On average, the growth loss is 0.6 percent of the gross domestic product per year," says the study.
In 2070 Germany would have 470,000 fewer jobs than in a hypothetical world without climate change.
In such a three-degree world, the economy is negatively affected through at least six channels: heat stress, damage to the capital stock, loss of agricultural land and agricultural yields, declining income from tourism and burdens on human health.
The loss of economic output of 730 billion euros corresponds roughly to the gross domestic product of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Turning point in 2038
According to the study, there are great economic advantages if Germany takes consistent countermeasures, makes a contribution to the global 1.5 degree target and becomes climate-neutral by 2050 at the latest. This requires considerable investment in restructuring the economy, especially in the decarbonization of industry and the switch to renewable energies such as wind and sun, including an increasing spread of green, i.e. carbon-free hydrogen.
According to the study, this restructuring of the economy would dampen growth in the coming years. However, the earlier climate change is combated, the lower the costs. A turning point will be reached in 2038, from then on growth will accelerate and in 2070 German gross domestic product will finally be 2.5 percent higher than without an active climate policy. Compared to doing nothing, there will be 830,000 more jobs. The positive development results on the one hand from the lack of damage, and on the other from economic opportunities such as new technologies, especially in the field of renewable energies.
However, it is important that Germany does not go ahead alone.
First, most economic benefits would only materialize if international issuers followed a similarly determined approach.
This makes it necessary "to bring trade and foreign policy into line with climate diplomacy."
Second, there will be large differences in the timing of the distribution of economic benefits and transition costs between EU Member States, which will require a common solution.
"The political decision-makers have to agree on a common strategic approach," says Volker Krug, CEO of Deloitte Germany.
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