The High Council of Public Finances (HCFP) regrets that the additional revenues garnered by the State thanks to the better economic growth are not more devoted to the reduction of the debt, according to an opinion published Wednesday.
"
The High Council notes that, contrary to what it recommended in its opinion of September 17, 2021, the expected additional revenue is not devoted to deleveraging, but that it is, on the contrary, more than offset by an additional expenditure or measures to reduce compulsory levies
”, he indicates in this opinion on the draft amending budget for 2021 and the revisions of the draft budget for 2022.
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The draft amending budget for 2021 is presented to the Council of Ministers on Wednesday and the draft budget for 2022 is being examined in Parliament, but the government has introduced important changes to it, having pushed it to consult again, to its request, the HCFP, independent body responsible for assessing the credibility of budget forecasts. During its first referral, the HCFP had thus regretted an "
incomplete
"
text
, considering that it could not give an opinion on the forecast of public deficit.
Since then, the executive has notably announced 10.2 billion euros in additional spending in 2022, in particular to support the purchasing power of households in the face of rising energy prices, which are in addition to those that will come into force from 2021 (additional energy check, etc.).
Added to this is the France 2030 investment plan, with an initial envelope of 3.5 billion euros budgeted for 2022 (including 2.8 billion in subsidies that will weigh on the public deficit), or 550 million euros. euros to finance the employment contract for young people.
Inflation forecast "too low"
If the decline in the public debt ratio for 2022 is "
stronger than expected
", the debt to fall from 115.3% in 2021 to 113.5% in 2022 (against 116% in the previous forecast), "
this does not follow. however not a reduction of the public deficit but of operations of cash management of the State
”, judges the HCFP.
However, he considers plausible the deficit forecast for 2022 (5% of GDP), while the deficit forecast for 2021 could be "
slightly lower
" than the forecast of 8.1%, due to an "
underestimation of revenues. based on the wage bill
”, thanks to more favorable employment trends.
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In 2021, revenues could also swell thanks to economic growth now expected to well above the government's forecast of 6.25%. This forecast "
should be exceeded, in view of the results, much better than expected
", of the French economy in the third quarter, which grew by 3%, notes the HCFP. The additional tax revenues that the State could then garner "
would go to reducing the deficit and the debt
", assured Tuesday evening the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, at the National Assembly.
The HCFP finally considers
the inflation forecast of 1.5% for next year
"
too low
", which the government has not changed "
despite the rise in energy prices and the marked improvement in the economy. labor market
”which could drive the level of wages and prices.
