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Shepherd boy in South Africa: Heat could make working outdoors "impossible" in tropical countries and at the equator
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Themba Hadebe / AP
Many poorer states are not only suffering from the climatic effects of climate change, but according to a study, global warming will also be accompanied by a drastic climate-related collapse in economic power over the next few decades.
The 65 poor countries and small island states studied are threatened with an average of 19.6 percent decline in their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, given the currently expected climate change, according to the study, which was carried out by climate analyst and economist Marina Andrijevic von der Humboldt -University in Berlin was coordinated.
A decline of 63.9 percent can be expected by 2100, according to the calculations on behalf of the non-governmental organization Christian Aid.
These figures are based on the assumption that global warming in 2100 will have reached 2.9 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
Development of the countries in serious danger
Should the world get on the path with its climate protection measures to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, the average GDP loss due to climate change in these countries would still be 13.1 percent by 2050 and 33.1 percent by at the end of the century.
The estimates are based on an econometric model based on the relationship between GDP growth and temperature.
The effects of climate change on economic performance were estimated using a two-stage modeling process.
In the first stage, a historical relationship between GDP growth and climate variables is examined in order to extend these relationships in a second stage to various temperature paths in the 21st century.
The method used by the researchers does not take into account any adaptations to climate changes, but is based on the current situation. Larger investments can potentially mitigate some of the damage. On the other hand, only the effects of the rise in temperature are considered, which means that additional damage from extreme weather events could even worsen the economic outlook.
According to the authors of the study, Africa suffers particularly badly from the economic consequences of climate change: eight of the ten most affected countries are located there. According to the study, the ten states must expect GDP to fall by more than 70 percent by the year 2100 on the current climate policy path. Even if the 1.5-degree target is met, the decline in their economic power will still be around 40 percent.
The study was published on Monday at the UN climate conference in Glasgow on the occasion of the focus on climate-related damage and losses.
From Andrijevic's point of view, it shows that climate change "seriously jeopardizes the ability of countries in the global south to develop sustainably and that the political decisions we are making now are crucial to avoiding further damage."
The scientist emphasized that the prognoses of the study were based only on the expected global temperature increase, but did not take into account the intensifying weather extremes such as droughts and floods.
The real damage could therefore be even greater.
The German climate researcher Friederike Otto from London's Imperial College stated that extreme heat could make working outdoors in tropical countries and at the equator "impossible".
The countries concerned suffer "growing economic damage" as a result.
apr / AFP