The war of numbers is declared.
A study published Tuesday by the Institute of Public Policies (IPP) undermines the record of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term on the increase in purchasing power, a major subject of the presidential pre-campaign, estimating that the standard of living of the poorest has declined in five years.
At the beginning of last October, the executive nevertheless assured that the standard of living "grew twice as fast between 2017 and 2022 than under the two previous five-year terms", with "a more marked gain for the highest incomes. modest (+ 4%) ”.
However, according to the IPP, an institute linked to the Paris School of Economics, the poorest 5% of households are the only ones not to benefit from an increase in their purchasing power, losing up to 0, 5% standard of living (i.e. all of their income after taxes and benefits).
At the same time, the rest of the French have seen their standard of living rise by around 1.6% since the start of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term.
The richest 1% are the biggest beneficiaries
Even if these results concerning the poorest may cover "very heterogeneous situations", nuances the study, the standard of living of the poorest households has been eroded by lower revaluations of certain benefits and by the increase in taxes on social security. energy and tobacco, which weigh more in proportion to their income.
Conversely, the richest 1% recorded the largest increase (in percentage), with an average gain of 2.8%.
And among them, the richest 0.1% earned even more (around + 4%).
The latter benefited in particular at the start of the five-year term from the abolition of the ISF, replaced by the Real Estate Wealth Tax (IFI), or the introduction of the single flat-rate levy on capital income.
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Some of the less well-off households have also seen their income increase by around 2%, thanks to the revaluation of the activity premium and the minimum old age.
Work premium
According to the IPP, the fact of working or not proved to be "crucial" in the evolution of the standard of living of households during the five-year period, which was also the priority displayed by the government since 2017. As evidenced by the increase in the activity premium or the abolition of social contributions for unemployment and health insurance visible on the employees' pay slips.
But overall, households benefited from a tax cut of 28 billion euros (abolition of the housing tax, replacement of the ISF by the IFI, reduction in income tax, etc. ), when the social benefits paid fell by more than 4 billion euros, despite the revaluation of some of them.
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Last month, the government presented a completely different record of its policy.
According to a study by the Treasury Department at the Ministry of the Economy, the standard of living of households has increased by 4% for the 10% of the most modest households, and by 2% on average for most households.
What invalidate the criticism of a President of the Republic "president of the rich", which sticks to his skin since the abolition of the ISF in 2018 and accentuated by the movement of yellow vests.
Bercy believes that the IPP ignored certain measures
A contradiction that the IPP explains by differences in method between it and the executive.
At the Ministry of the Economy, we point out in particular the fact that the PPI did not take into account certain measures "which directly benefit (households) at the bottom of the distribution", such as 100% health, MaPrimeRénov 'or the youth employment contract, nor measures "entered into force during this five-year term but decided before".
Finally, Bercy believes that "the PPI exaggerates the effect of tobacco taxation" on the most modest households, compared to "observed tax increases" by the administration.
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Moreover, the institute recognizes that if it had used in its study the same assumptions as the government, it would have found similar results, that is to say an increase of 3% in the standard of living of the 10% poorest, and d 'about 1.5% for the top 10%. But the study falls badly as for several months the executive has been striving to counter the return of inflation, in particular the rise in energy prices which are straining the household budget, aware that at five months of the presidential election, the subject has become a priority for many French people.
The opposition has also multiplied promises and proposals, in particular to increase wages.
On the left, we particularly favor the revaluation of the minimum wage, when the right defends the reduction in social contributions, or like Xavier Bertrand a “work bonus” for employees receiving up to 2,000 euros.