Now is the time for optimism for the French economy.
According to an OECD study published on Thursday, the economy is expected to grow around 6.8% this year (against 6.3% previously), thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery since the summer.
The body bringing together the richest countries then expects growth of 4.2% in 2022 for France, against 4% expected when its latest forecasts were published in mid-September.
"After a weak start in 2021, the economy rebounded as a result of reduced epidemic circulation, the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and the easing of health restrictions," writes the Organization for Cooperation and economic development in this study.
According to a first estimate from INSEE published at the end of October, gross domestic product (GDP) jumped 3% in the third quarter, well above expectations.
If the Institute, like the government, at this stage kept their forecast of 6.25% for 2021, the Banque de France now evokes a growth of 6.75%.
Still risks associated with the pandemic
The OECD underlines in particular that "budgetary measures strongly support domestic demand", in particular emergency aid for households and businesses, as well as the reduction in the housing tax, which "will make it possible to considerably reduce effects of the crisis on household income and purchasing power, despite the expected drop in unemployment benefits ”.
At the same time, the OECD notes that the recovery plan and the France 2030 investment plan "have preserved the production capacity of companies" and "will also support their investment".
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But the organization points to the risks associated with changes in the health situation and with very high indebtedness, both private (companies and households) and public.
It will take "significant efforts" to "stabilize" the public debt "at nearly 120% of GDP in 2060", against about 115% expected this year, warns the OECD, which recommends "an ambitious program of significant and gradual reduction of public spending ”, in particular by raising the retirement age.
The institution also recommends that France "reduce the wage bill in the public sector" and remove certain tax loopholes, in particular anti-environmental.