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Currently a common picture in many sectors: companies are desperately looking for staff (here: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania)
Photo: Jens Büttner / dpa
According to expert calculations, without a significant increase in immigration from abroad, companies in Germany will have far fewer workers available in 2035.
The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) said on Tuesday that it would only be possible to compensate for the decline in the labor supply caused by the aging of the population if there was a net immigration of around 400,000 people per year.
The researchers believe that this is hardly achievable, as immigration from EU countries is on the decline.
In addition, it shows that the more immigrants move, so does the emigration: "Without significantly lower emigration rates, such a high net immigration will be difficult to achieve over a longer period of time (...)."
Seven million fewer employees
The research institute of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) is instead assuming a net immigration of 100,000 people annually.
"In the long term, we consider this value to be realistic," write the researchers.
Due to the growing proportion of older people in the population, the labor supply is expected to decrease by 7.2 million by 2035 from the current 47.4 million people.
Given a net immigration of 100,000 people annually and a further increase in employment of women and the elderly, the decline would be limited to around 3.0 million by 2035.
By 2060, however, there was a shortage of 6.1 million workers.
According to the researchers, more educational measures could dampen the consequences of a falling labor supply.
The associated higher productivity of the workforce could, in the longer term, help to alleviate the negative consequences.
The Skilled Workers Immigration Act, which came into force in 2020, is also going in the "right direction, but is likely to be inadequate".
In their coalition negotiations on the formation of the new federal government, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP have already agreed that they want to make this law “more practicable”.
In addition, a points system is to be introduced to attract foreign skilled workers.
Well-integrated refugees who pay for their own living should be able to "change lanes" to a legally secure residence status.
beb / Reuters