Will we have Ferrero Rocher at Christmas and Nutella on the Candlemas pancakes?
According to a Wall Street Journal article published on December 20, the collapse of the Turkish currency is hurting the production of hazelnuts in the country, the world's largest exporter.
And so could disrupt the entire supply chain ... to the point of causing a shortage of Nutella.
The alarmist news spread like wildfire in the media and on social media.
"If you are a fan of Nutella, you should stock up the next time you go shopping," advises Turgan ZĂĽlfikar, New Yorker, a specialist in the Turkish economy, in the American daily.
"Experts say buyers should stock up on Nutella as a shortage of hazelnuts looms," Andreas Mountzouroulias, Greek journalist and international relations researcher, relays on Twitter.
#Expert says shoppers should stock up on #Nutella as a hazelnut shortage looms
Turkey is the world's largest producer of hazelnuts.
But its currency collapse is hurting this industry and could lead to shortages, the WSJ reported.
https://t.co/OOFVe24jVc
- Andreas Mountzouroulias 🇬🇷 (@andreasmoun) December 21, 2021
The gravity of the economic situation in Turkey must indeed be taken seriously.
Since the start of the year, the Turkish lira has lost 45% of its value against the dollar.
Inflation, whose official rate has already exceeded 21% over one year, could reach 30% in the coming months, according to economists.
The economic crisis is affecting low-income households, but not only: the price of imported products has risen so much that the Turkish middle class is now finding it difficult to shop.
No shortage or price hike, according to Ferrero
And the producers of hazelnuts, also impoverished, are forced to slow down their activity.
With 76,500 fruit growers, the country alone normally provides 70% of global production and 82% of exports.
But to grow hazelnuts, you need fertilizer: it costs three times more than last year.
The price of gasoline has also skyrocketed and is reflected in the cost of exporting.
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Contacted, the Ferrero France group nevertheless ensures that no shortage of its products is looming. "We want to reassure consumers to avoid the rush for Nutella, we do not foresee a shortage at all," said a spokesperson, adding that "Ferrero has not been echoed by supply difficulties" in its chain logistics.
Apart from the risk of a shortage, the American newspaper also underlined that it was "at a minimum" to expect an increase in prices.
"With their farms producing fewer hazelnuts, the lower supply will eventually push up prices for consumers, say industry leaders," writes the Wall Street Journal.
Again, despite the depletion of stocks, Ferrero denies.
"For now, prices are fixed and, as there is no shortage, there will be no price increase," said the group, which alone captures a third of Turkish exports, according to Franceinfo.
VIDEO.
Hazelnut farmers against Ferrero: Nutella sparks the ire of Turkish farmers
This is not the first time that the likelihood of a strain on Nutella has surfaced.
In 2019, a strike at the Nutella and Kinder Bueno plant in Villers-Écalles (Seine-Maritime), the largest Ferrero plant in the world, caused a significant slowdown in Nutella production for more than a week.
VIDEO.
The world's largest Nutella plant has been shut down for six days
The site, located on the outskirts of Rouen, had already experienced a few days of shutdown in February of the same year after a problem in roasting the hazelnuts.
In 2014, a fierce episode of frost had decimated many hazelnut orchards on the shores of the Black Sea.
Production has fallen by a third and prices have risen sharply, from $ 3 per kilo in 2013, to $ 5 or even 5.50 after the natural disaster.
The media then predicted an increase in the price of chocolate, and therefore of Nutella, but no shortage.