Mechanical engineering: The crisis was used for restructuring
Photo: JENS MEYER / ASSOCIATED PRESS
According to the research and consulting company Prognos, the corona crisis is likely to slow the growth rates of the German economy in the long term.
"Corona leads to long-term losses," said Prognos' chief economist Michael Böhmer.
Including the slump in the corona crisis year 2020, the German economy will therefore grow by only around 1.1 percent annually between 2019 and 2024 and thus more slowly than in the five years before with 1.7 percent annually.
Prognos assumes that Europe's largest economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2021 compared to the previous year.
In the current year, the gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.0 percent and in 2023 by 2.8 percent.
An increase of 1.4 percent is expected for 2024.
The pandemic is currently still dominating the economic outlook. There would also be delivery bottlenecks. Like other economists, the Prognos economists are therefore expecting a weak start to the current year. They expect an upswing from spring 2022, boosted primarily by private consumption. After the restrained development last year, investments should also make a substantial contribution.
According to Prognos, the following year will continue to be characterized by an upswing.
"The job market is stable, industry is running and the state finances remain sustainable," explained chief economist Böhmer.
Despite the recurring shocks in the past two years, the German economy is structurally still in healthy shape.
In addition, the crisis was used for restructuring in many areas, which should pay off in the medium term as productivity increases.
Provided that no new shocks occur, the German economy will swing back to a growth rate close to long-term potential growth in 2024.
This is understood to mean the long-term change in gross domestic product with a normal degree of utilization of production capacities.
In its forecast, Prognos assumes that the corona pandemic will not hit economic and social life with full force again in winter 2022/23 and in the years thereafter, thanks to vaccination advances, among other things.
mik / dpa