Inflation should accelerate a little more than expected in the first half of the year to reach "
between 3% and 3.5%
", estimated Tuesday INSEE, which also revised its growth forecast slightly downwards to 0.3%. for the first trimester, because of the Omicron variant.
Read alsoIn France, inflation accelerates further in January to 2.9% over one year, according to INSEE
In January, inflation has already reached 2.9% year on year, and this movement should continue with a repercussion of the increases in food and industrial production costs, pushed by the increase in the prices of energy and raw materials. first in recent months, details INSEE in its new economic update.
Food prices should, for example, rise by 2.5% in June over one year, against +1.5% in January.
A rise in prices contained by government measures
In its previous forecasts published in mid-December, the National Institute of Statistics expected global inflation above 2.6% for the first half of 2022. But since then, beyond the strength of the economic recovery which is increasing raw material prices, “
strong geopolitical tensions
” have once again pulled oil prices up, notes INSEE, which is now assuming a price per barrel of 90 dollars, against 75 dollars previously.
Read alsoWhy inflation seems half as low in France as in Germany
This acceleration in inflation should, however, be contained by the measures put in place to support household purchasing power (energy vouchers, inflation compensation, gas price freeze, cap on the rise in electricity prices).
"
Without them, the inflation forecast for February would have been raised by at least one percentage point
", or more than 4%, assesses INSEE.
With regard to economic activity, INSEE slightly lowered its growth forecast for the first quarter to 0.3%, against 0.4% previously, due to the arrival of the Omicron variant.
The restrictions put in place (gauges, extension of the closure of nightclubs, protocol in schools, vaccination pass, etc.) and absenteeism at work caused by the numerous contaminations have in fact deteriorated the outlook in trade and services and slowed down household consumption, "
particularly in accommodation and catering, transport services or leisure
".
But this slowdown in the economy, after growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2021, should only be "
temporary
", according to the institute.
INSEE thus raised its growth forecast for the second quarter by 0.1 point, to +0.6%, with in particular a "
slow dissipation
» Supply difficulties.
However, he warns of recruitment difficulties, which "
reach record levels
".