International institutions are beginning to pave the way for fiscal policy to slow down.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls on the countries of the euro zone with high debt to formulate "credible" adjustment plans.
And he asks them to do it "now" to have everything ready to apply them when the economic recovery phase is consolidated.
That does not mean, however, that the organization led by Kristalina Georgieva calls for drastic austerity measures.
In fact, in a recently published report – the so-called Article IV with the partners of the single currency –
The euro zone economy continues to grow despite the obstacles it continues to encounter: bottlenecks, supply problems or new variants.
The IMF estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand by 3.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, supported by an increase in consumption.
In addition to the uncertainties that existed until now, there is also the geopolitical factor, due to the conflict in Ukraine, and above all the big question mark over inflation.
The institution believes that the price rise this year will be 3%, but estimates that as of 2023 it will once again be below the medium-term objective of the European Central Bank (ECB), of 2%.
The IMF does begin to indicate, however, what is the path that the countries of the euro zone must begin to travel.
After two years of expansive fiscal policy, the agency is committed to beginning to measure well and target the measures.
The Washington-based institution estimates that the fiscal position of all governments in the euro zone will continue to be expansionary in 2022, closing the year with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP.
In view of future exercises, the body makes a distinction between heavily indebted countries and those that can still breathe.
The latter, in his opinion, can continue with an expansive orientation, which would have effects on the economies of their partners.
The countries with the most debt, on the other hand, must begin to guess at the formula with which they will collect cable.
The document does not mention any specific country.
However, Spain is the sixth country with the highest volume of debt, behind Greece, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and France.
All of them have a volume of debt of more than 100% of GDP.
The IMF considers that the crisis has not only narrowed the possibilities of these countries, but has also amplified their "vulnerabilities" to future
shocks
.
"Highly indebted countries must formulate credible adjustment plans now," says the IMF, who recommends that they begin to deploy them when the economic expansion is consolidated.
The fund considers that the possible limitations in which these governments find themselves can be replaced by the subsidies of the European Next Generation EU plan or by a higher quality of spending or greater fiscal progressivity.