General view of the Madrid stock market floor this Monday, which closed with a loss of 2.55%.Altea Tejido (EFE)
The escalation of tensions due to the Ukraine crisis sows panic among investors.
European stock markets have started the week in the red after warnings from the United States that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine imminently.
Some airlines have suspended flights with Kiev due to the growing uncertainty and most European capitals have recommended their citizens to leave Ukraine.
The European markets have registered sharp falls this Monday despite the fact that the head of Russian diplomacy Sergey Lavrov declared that the path of dialogue has not been exhausted and that there is still a possibility of resolving the crisis through diplomatic channels.
The declines recorded in mid-afternoon on Wall Street, which reached 1%, have led the European stock markets to intensify their losses.
Between them,
Almost all the great values of the Spanish selective have closed lower.
ArcelorMittal has collapsed more than 6%, while IAG, Sabadell, Fluidra and Santander more than 4%.
The telecommunications company Cellnex is the only value that remains in the green, although it has recorded a very slight rise (0.08%).
The Eurostoxx 50 —which represents the 50 largest companies in the euro zone—, Paris, Frankfurt and Milan have fallen by 2%.
After initial doubts, Wall Street posted losses in mid-afternoon: the Dow Jones fell 0.40%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.27%.
The Nasdaq got rid of the red numbers and advanced 0.76%.
These falls reflect the attention with which the markets follow the Ukraine crisis.
And for now, the news coming from the main capitals is not encouraging.
Washington believes that the invasion may be imminent and says it is "prepared for other scenarios" if diplomacy fails.
On the eve of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's trip to Moscow, concerns do not seem to have dissipated.
That concern was reflected in practically all markets, including oil, whose price has set new highs in seven years.
The price of a barrel of Brent, a reference for the European market, has exceeded this Monday the barrier of 95 dollars and so far this year it has become more expensive by 21%.
The secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammad Barkindo, has been optimistic that world leaders involved in the standoff over Ukraine would de-escalate tension.
Barkindo, who attended a sector meeting in Egypt on Monday, pointed out that some countries are having trouble meeting their production targets and that the market needs every barrel of oil it can get right now.
Although the European Union imports about 40% of its gas from Russia, analysts believe that Putin will not cut energy exports.
“Even in the days of the Cold War, the Soviet Union has not cut gas supplies to Europe.
He is not interested, because he is his main client.
It would be like shooting your own foot”, points out Ignacio de la Torre, partner and chief economist at Arcano Partners.
However, the global increase in gas prices continues to threaten the economic recovery.
“Europe has to deal with an energy deficit, so if you spend more to buy that type of goods, there is less money left for the rest of the basket.
Therefore, economic activity suffers.
In addition, analysts expect inflation to begin to subside from April,
.
Evolution of inflation
The markets are also waiting for other data to be released (such as the GDP of the euro zone), business results (Airbnb and Repsol) or the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve that reveal the pace of the stimulus withdrawal.
The publication of US inflation data - which stood at 7.5%, the highest since 1982 - sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve may tighten its monetary policy in March.
Nieves Benito, Head of Fundamental Research at Santander AM, warns about the times of ups and downs in which the stock markets have settled.
“It is very difficult to get exactly the timing right if you are investing in equities and you have to accept the volatility, which is expected to continue.
If there was a risk of surprises in any direction,
The escalation of tensions between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine conflict has also spilled over into debt markets.
Spain's risk premium with respect to the German bond exceeded 100 basis points on Monday for the first time since June 2020. The explanation for this rise is found above all in the flight of investors from the Stock Exchanges towards safe assets such as sovereign debt of strong economies.
This change has meant that the return on the German bond,
considered the main refuge in Europe, has collapsed this Monday, causing a rise in the risk premiums of countries such as Spain, Italy or Portugal.
That of Spain climbed to a top of 102 basis points.
Premiums from Greece (236), Italy (167) and Portugal (88) also rose.