Introduced at the start of the crisis, in March 2020, in order to meet an urgent need for liquidity for companies, state-guaranteed loans (PGE) have been a definite success.
At the end of 2021, some 145 billion euros in PGEs had been granted under the scheme to more than 700,000 companies, with more than three quarters of the volume granted between March and June 2020. It appears from a note from the Treasury that the PGE have mainly benefited the sectors most affected by the crisis and the smallest companies.
They mainly went to those with a temporary need for cash without the most vulnerable having particular recourse to it.
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Surveys of companies on their use of PGEs show that many of them used them as a precaution and only used a small proportion of their credit.
Moreover, the substitution of other bank debt seems to have been limited.
If the beneficiaries of PGE have indeed seen their debt increase, they have also experienced a strong increase in their cash flow, thus keeping a fairly stable net debt in general.
Surveys available for 2021 do not point to specific reimbursement issues.
Only 5% of companies think they will have difficulty paying their installments.
In addition, Banque de France estimates currently lead to an expected gross loss rate of 3%.
As for the State, it anticipates net losses at less than 1% of the volume granted.
However, the crisis in Ukraine could raise this very low default estimate.