Enlarge image
Natural gas receiving station of the European gas connection line Eugal in Lubmin (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania)
Photo: Stefan Sauer / dpa
A team of scholars from the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina considers the effects of a short-term suspension of deliveries of natural gas from Russia to be "manageable" for the German economy.
This is the result of a statement by the oldest scientific community in Germany, which is available to SPIEGEL.
It says: “Bottlenecks could arise in the coming winter.
It would be possible to limit the negative effects and cushion the social impact by immediately implementing a package of measures.«
In their ad hoc analysis, the researchers looked at the demand for natural gas in Germany, both in the short term for the coming winter and in the medium and long term.
In addition to security of supply, they were concerned with affordability for business and consumers, but also with the effects on the climate and energy transition.
According to the Leopoldina researchers, the long-term goal is a resilient and climate-neutral European energy system.
The Leopoldina scientists are thus treating two scenarios.
First, that Russia, in response to the sanctions, should refuse to supply natural gas to Western countries and Germany.
A realistic scenario, as a statement made yesterday by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nowak suggests.
The Russian government could cut natural gas supplies to Germany in response to Nord Stream 2 not being commissioned.
An “embargo on gas transport through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline” would be justified given the “unfounded allegations against Russia regarding the energy crisis in Europe and the ban on Nord Stream 2”, according to Nowak.
In the other scenario, the West could also turn off the gas supply.
The scientists are thus entering into the debate on how sanctions against Russia could be extended in view of the war of aggression in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy had already demanded this at the beginning of the war.
The responsible Federal Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck, rejected it last Thursday because of the threat of high energy prices and "social discord" in Germany.
An optimistic analysis – at first glance
In their basically optimistic analysis, the Leopoldina researchers come to a supply gap and great burdens for the population and the economy - and they identify decisive conditions for the import ban to remain "manageable".
According to this, Europe imported around 1768 terawatt hours of natural gas from Russia in 2019, of which Germany alone imported 450 terawatt hours, which accounted for around 50 percent of the total requirement.
If Germany had filled its storage tanks for the winter, there would be room there for gas with the energy of 275 terawatt hours, i.e. more than half of the annual volume coming from Russia.
"Liquid gas from different parts of the world could replace Russian natural gas where gas cannot be substituted in the short term," write the scientists at the renowned academy.
But this is only »theoretical«, they point out.
Because the country does not currently have its own liquid gas terminals.
The capacities available in other European countries amount to 1100 terawatt hours, which could "to a considerable extent" compensate for the 1768 terawatt hours currently imported from Russia.
To a significant extent, but not entirely.
The state as natural gas buyer
According to the researchers, natural gas storage facilities come into play to close the gap: "In order to ensure a supply in the coming winter regardless of the availability of Russian gas, the storage of quantities procured during the year would also have to be ensured."
The scientists therefore see the state as having an obligation to redesign the liberalized gas market in such a way that companies do not buy up the natural gas.
In their nine-page statement, it must be decided whether the EU should act as quickly as possible on the gas market "as a coordinated and binding buyer, possibly even demanding that private gas importers create gas reserves."
The structures of the gas market would have to be completely turned inside out.
A further purely private energy supply under state regulation and supervision up to an "in principle" completely state energy supply is conceivable.
The state is particularly in demand for the development of "energy ports", other large storage facilities and transmission networks ("energy highways").
Other elements of the transmission network could continue to be organized on a purely private basis.
After an import ban on Russian natural gas, the existing natural gas must also be used sparingly, the Leopoldina scholars recommend.
This also includes not converting the precious energy source into electricity in power plants.
In the short term, this should at least be done with coal, even if this is at the expense of the climate.
»A short-term relief could be achieved if the available output from gas power was replaced by available output from domestic coal.«
National Academy Leopoldina
The researchers write: "A short-term relief could be achieved if the disposable output of gas power were replaced by disposable output from domestic coal, which is possible immediately without changes to the infrastructure." What they say indirectly should not please climate protectors at all: Currently, only lignite is native, the dirtiest and most climate-damaging of all fossil fuels that can be found in East German Lusatia and in the Rhenish mining area.
Another side effect is the significant increase in the cost of offsetting Russian natural gas.
Here, too, the state must take countermeasures.
According to the analysis, it must »socially cushion the burdens on citizens with low and middle incomes and relieve companies of energy taxes.
And the researchers mention another important factor, without doing so too prominently, a condition that is not in human hands: the weather in the coming winter.
"When it comes to heat supply, the industrial heat supply could be restricted in severe winters," they say.
In other words: If the coming winter is colder than this year's, there will be a shortage of gas which, according to the current legal situation, will mean that industrial groups will have to shut down.
This effect could only be mitigated if the industry reduced its production last summer due to the expensive gas prices, or made it more efficient, i.e. has already reduced its gas consumption.
The scientists are sober in their analysis, but these lines are likely to cause great concern among business people.
A to-do list for politicians
The researchers provide politics and business with an extensive to-do list, divided into measures that have to be completed in the coming weeks and months, within a year and in the next two to ten years.
These long-term tasks then include the radical expansion of renewable energies, the production of green hydrogen and the transformation of the economy to climate-neutral production.
The authors emphasize that the federal government has already implemented or is in the process of implementing a number of the points they proposed.
These include the new regulations, with which gas storage tanks must have reached prescribed filling levels on certain key dates.
The state has also already acted as a gas buyer.
The scientists urgently advise against not questioning the planned phase-out of coal in 2030.
"He helps become independent of Russian coal imports, which account for 50 percent of German coal imports," they write.
The Leopoldina under its President Gerald Haug had already provided decision-making aids to politicians during the corona pandemic with a series of ad hoc statements.
Now she is also raising her voice in the Ukraine war.
Eleven researchers from their ranks participated, including the climate researcher Antje Boetius from the Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, the economist Veronika Grimm, the economist Christoph Schmidt from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Essen and Ottmar Edenhofer from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research or Ferdi Schüth, Max Planck Institute for Coal Research in Mülheim.