Due to the accumulation of economic sanctions against it after the invasion of Ukraine, the rating agency Fitch, after other rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Moody's, which had already placed the long-term debt of the Russia in the category of countries likely to be unable to repay their debt, has just downgraded the country from “B” to “C”.
However, the lower this rating, the less the lenders will trust the country and the less it will be able to borrow money at reasonable interest rates.
To justify its decision, Fitch points to a presidential decree signed on March 5 which could authorize Russia to reimburse creditors of certain countries in rubles rather than in foreign currency.
The agency also mentions a decision by the Russian central bank to restrict the transfer of certain bonds to non-residents.
“More generally, tougher sanctions and proposals that could limit energy trade increase the likelihood of a policy response from Russia that includes at least a selective non-payment of its sovereign obligations,” Fitch said.
It is also possible that technical barriers such as the blocking of funds transfers prevent the repayment of the debt.
This default by Moscow would be a first since 1998.
The United States considered "very reliable"
Conversely, financial rating agency S&P Global Ratings affirmed the AA+ rating for US long-term debt.
This rating is assigned to issuers considered to be very reliable, with a stable outlook, signaling expectation of "moderate" growth this year and in 2023. "This rating is based on a diversified and resilient economy, great flexibility in monetary policy and the unique status of issuer of the first reserve currency in the world”, details the agency.
However, it notes the constraints of the “heavy public debt” which should “stabilize after having swelled sharply due to the shock of the pandemic”.
US GDP grew by 5.7% in 2021, stimulated by significant fiscal stimulus measures and a very accommodating monetary policy, recalls S&P Global Ratings, which forecasts growth of 3% in 2022 and 2.3% over the next few years. next two years.