In order to get to Stephan Wöllenstein, you have to circumvent the strict Covid rules.
Volkswagen's China boss resides in the Beijing group headquarters called “V-Space”, a seven-storey glass cube in the middle of the capital, actually a busy place.
But on this Tuesday at the end of March there is not much going on.
The corona regulations have been tightened, the building is closed to external visitors.
Wöllenstein has to grant special permission so that the conversation with SPIEGEL can take place at all.
These are difficult times, for China as well as for Wolfsburg.
The fact that production at the VW plants in Shanghai and Changchun keeps standing still due to the Chinese leadership’s rigid zero-Covid strategy is just one of many problems.
Wöllenstein speaks of a "high volatility" in economic activity due to the pandemic, the effects on the supply chains and "extremely high stress for colleagues who have to see from day to day what works and what doesn't work".
It is “not yet certain” that China will again be able to catch up economically this year, as it did after the economic slump in 2020.
Something like the perfect storm is brewing in China for Volkswagen and the entire German auto industry.
VW, BMW and Mercedes depend on a drip from the world power, they sell 30 to 40 percent of their vehicles there.
When it comes to electromobility, almost nothing works without the Middle Kingdom: When it comes to core technologies such as battery cells, Germans are largely dependent on Asian manufacturers.
Despite Covid and the economic slowdown, China is becoming the dominant technology power.
The times when the German car bosses were able to celebrate their globalization successes largely untroubled are over for the time being.
The Ukraine invasion is a shocking reminder that dependencies such as those on Russian gas can, in the worst case, bring entire branches of industry to a standstill.
And the China risk is even greater for the automaker.
The concern in the corporate headquarters is correspondingly pronounced.
In internal working papers, the industry lobby association BDI, which described China as a “systemic competitor” years ago, runs through scenarios that put “interdependence with autocratic regimes” to the test.
In other words: to make yourself more independent.
A "strong Europe" would have to integrate "economically even further into the western alliance" if necessary.
But would a key industry like the automotive industry be able to survive without the close ties with China?
Hasn't the dependency on the entire Asian region been far too great for a long time?
Daimler, for example, has drastically shifted the focus of its business within 15 years.
With the sale of Chrysler and most recently the spin-off of the US-based truck business, China's share of sales has risen from well under 10 to more than 30 percent. The most important shareholders are no longer domestic financial giants such as Deutsche Bank, but the Chinese state-owned company BAIC and Li Shufu, owner of automaker Geely.
Mercedes-Benz has "gone from a transatlantic to a Eurasian company," says Sven Behrendt, head of the management consultancy GeoEconomica.
Things are not much different at BMW and Volkswagen.
For VW, for example, a downturn in its most important sales market would be dramatic.
Without the double-digit billions in sales that the group generates in China every year, it would hardly be able to carry out its planned transformation into an electrical and high-tech group.
VW now employs 20,000 to 30,000 development engineers, stresses CEO Herbert Diess, "not least thanks to our Chinese customers."
The future of Volkswagen, he once said, "will be decided in the Chinese market."
The Germans have surrendered to the Chinese, even when it comes to procurement.
60 percent of the aluminum and 80 percent of the battery mineral graphite come from China.
In addition, the country promotes around two thirds of the rare earths.
China also dominates the world market in the further processing of these high-tech raw materials, for example for use in battery cells.
The country's battery manufacturers hold almost 50 percent of the global market.
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Simon Hage, Martin Hesse
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Publisher: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt
Number of pages: 304
Release date: April 11, 2022
A SPIEGEL book: The fight for customers, ideas, innovations - how the German car manufacturers want to be back at the top of the world
Publisher: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt
Number of pages: 304
Release date: April 11, 2022
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For decades, China and VW were one of the greatest success stories in German industrial history, and even more: the symbol of an apparent symbiosis between two economies for mutual benefit.
But in the meantime the balance of power between the traditional company and the up-and-coming technology powerhouse has tilted – in favor of the Chinese.
At a meeting of VW top managers in September 2021, VW brand boss Ralf Brandstätter warned of the strength of Chinese competitors.
He recently drove an electric car from the start-up Xpeng – and was impressed.
The Chinese not only mastered electric drives and digital technology, but also improved quality and workmanship.
The problem of the Wolfsburg: Instead of being limited to cheap cars, the Chinese, like Tesla, are increasingly penetrating their domain, the middle class.
In November, company boss Diess warned the workforce: “The next Golf must not be a Tesla!
The next Golf must not come from China!
The next icon has to be a Wolfsburger again!«
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