The Russian economy is expected to contract between 7.8% and 8.8% in 2022, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development estimated on Wednesday (May 18).
Under a baseline scenario, which sees oil prices falling by the end of the year to $73-74 a barrel, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall by 7.8 percent, the ministry said in its macroeconomic forecasts.
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If Western sanctions against Russia, imposed since the launch of its offensive in Ukraine, were to get tougher, and oil prices were to experience a bigger drop, the economy would then contract by 8.8%, further estimates. the Ministry.
On April 29, the Russian central bank underlined that the external environment was "
difficult for the Russian economy
" and weighed "
heavily on economic activity
", observing that companies were "
facing considerable difficulties in terms of production and logistics
”.
In this context, the monetary institution had estimated that the country's GDP should fall by 8 to 10% this year, then should start to “
grow rapidly again in 2023 thanks to a structural transformation
” of the economy.