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Russia: fall between 7.8% and 8.8% of GDP expected in 2022


The Russian central bank stressed that the external environment was "difficult for the Russian economy" and weighed "heavily on economic activity".

The Russian economy is expected to contract between 7.8% and 8.8% in 2022, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development estimated on Wednesday (May 18).

Under a baseline scenario, which sees oil prices falling by the end of the year to $73-74 a barrel, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall by 7.8 percent, the ministry said in its macroeconomic forecasts.

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If Western sanctions against Russia, imposed since the launch of its offensive in Ukraine, were to get tougher, and oil prices were to experience a bigger drop, the economy would then contract by 8.8%, further estimates. the Ministry.

On April 29, the Russian central bank underlined that the external environment was "

difficult for the Russian economy

" and weighed "

heavily on economic activity

", observing that companies were "

facing considerable difficulties in terms of production and logistics


In this context, the monetary institution had estimated that the country's GDP should fall by 8 to 10% this year, then should start to “

grow rapidly again in 2023 thanks to a structural transformation

” of the economy.

Source: lefigaro

All business articles on 2022-05-18

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