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Unfortunately, we have to stay outside: Around 30 climate protectionists are protesting on the sidelines of the Davos World Economic Forum, hundreds of meters away from the conference center
Photo: John G. Mabanglo / REX / EPA-EFE
Robert Habeck had given a clear direction in Davos.
"We want to become independent of Russian energy," said the Federal Minister of Economics during his appearance on day one of the World Economic Forum.
"At the speed of light" they plan to obtain natural gas and oil from other countries.
But the long-term goal is: "We want to become independent of all fossil fuels."
The Green Minister would like to see things in unison – energy security now, climate neutrality soon.
This is the optimistic view: the Ukraine war should not hinder the green transformation, but should even accelerate it.
On the other hand, many people from the green movement fear that climate protection will once again be of secondary importance in view of the Russian attack and soaring energy prices.
The skeptics might be right.
There are many indications of this at the Davos meeting of the political, economic and financial elite.
Russia's attack on Ukraine has thrown energy markets into chaos.
The prices for combustibles and fuels are climbing to astronomical heights.
Inflation is rampant, there is a shortage of fertilizers - and warnings of a problem of hunger in poor regions of the world are piling up.
These are "the four crises" that Habeck and many other speakers in Davos attested to the planet.
Is there now a new hunt for coal, oil and gas – instead of building wind turbines and installing solar systems?
This question dominates the debates in Davos.
At the past World Economic Forums in 2019 and 2020, everything revolved around Greta Thunberg.
The young climate activist caused a sensation with her sentence "Our house is on fire".
Companies and politicians, hardly anyone dared to openly question the urgent need for a sustainable economy.
Most of the participants in Davos firmly believed that mankind would pull together to avert the danger of constantly rising global temperatures.
That was 2020.
And 2022?
When our house is ablaze, extreme weather events and natural disasters become more frequent, while the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere rises and rises.
But Greta is not in Davos this time.
The petrostates of the Persian Gulf are celebrating big performances.
Homage to the Emir of Qatar
Banners of the oil monarchy of Saudi Arabia hang everywhere in the city's streets and hotels.
And in the plenary hall of the conference, homage is paid to the gas superpower Qatar.
Forum founder Klaus Schwab and Fifa boss Gianni Infantino outbid each other in deference to the Qatari ruler.
Schwab even asks the audience in the hall to stand up for "His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani".
And behind the scenes, the fuel deals are being initiated.
Does the global climate only have a subordinate priority: Now that the energy supply has to be secured at all costs?
India wants to produce more oil and gas
The debate with Economics Minister Habeck on Monday shows how far the views currently differ.
The CEO of the US oil company Occidental Petroleum, Vicki Hollub, takes the floor and declares that the end of oil is "decades" away.
According to Hollub, the raw material can be extracted even better if the carbon dioxide from combustion gases is pumped into the oil reservoirs.
60 percent of the crude oil available there reaches the earth's surface in this way, otherwise it is only 15 percent.
At this moment, Robert Habeck bends his upper body forward as if he were suddenly in great pain.
He is likely to feel the same when the Indian energy minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, speaks of the real needs of his people: the high energy prices, the food crisis.
And then announces that it will increase its own oil and gas production and imports.
"We need to continue on the green path, but we also need to meet our current energy needs," says Puri.
The world is invited to invest in his country.
You have wind and sun in unimaginable amounts.
For India, however, the first priority is to combat the high energy prices.
They fueled inflation and increased poverty.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has presented the world with a dilemma.
Boycott oil and gas, or rather not?
An embargo would reduce supply - and prices could shoot through the roof even further.
First for fuel and heating oil, gas and electricity.
Then for fertilizer and agrochemicals and finally for food.
For his part, Putin could generate even more revenue than before the war from the energy he sells to other countries that will not join the boycott.
And: the multinationals are already making money.
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, told SPIEGEL that the profits of the energy companies have increased from 1.5 trillion to four trillion dollars.
“The attack on Ukraine has plunged the world into a full-scale energy crisis.
This energy crisis is bigger than the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s.«
Back to Colombian coal
Davos participants from all corners of the world report on the consequences.
Colombia for example.
Here, German energy companies are stocking up on hard coal on a large scale, Energy Minister Diego Mesa told SPIEGEL: »We are seeing a significant increase in purchases from Europe, especially from Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.
The companies are preparing for August 15.«
On this day, the EU-wide coal embargo is to come into force;
Germany and other countries have already restricted their imports from Russia in advance.
Energy companies are trying to compensate for the Russian losses with bulk purchases in Colombia.
Although they actually wanted to get away from Colombian coal.
Companies such as Steag, EnBW, Uniper and RWE had reduced their imports from the South American country in recent years, in some cases significantly - after the mining companies had come under criticism.
Environmental and human rights organizations speak of Colombian "blood coal".
They accuse operators such as the US company Drummond or the Swiss commodity multinational Glencore of massive environmental destruction and human rights violations.
When asked about this, Mesa says his government is making sure that all standards are met.
In 2021, Germany only imported around six percent of its hard coal from Colombia.
But this proportion is now likely to rise again.
According to the Colombian government, Chancellor Olaf Scholz contacted President Ivan Duque weeks ago with a request to consider increasing coal exports to Germany.
Apparently it's already so far.
Colombia doesn't want anything to do with a coal phase-out - even if it wants to expand renewables at home.
"98 percent of our thermal coal is exported," says Mesa.
There is just a lot of money to be made there: the world market prices for various coal qualities have recently reached historic records.
The demand is so great.
And so Colombia will drastically increase its hard coal production this year.
64 million tons are targeted;
In 2021 it was 55 million.
Soon there could be even more: according to Mesa, two new production sites are to be opened soon.
Even with the second major climate killer, oil, there is no sign of a trend reversal - despite Greta's warnings and despite the increasing sales of electric cars.
The EU states are struggling with their oil embargo. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen indicated in Davos that Hungary will probably not be persuaded to give up its resistance so quickly.
Expert: Oil consumption will increase until at least 2035
And elsewhere in the world, demand is likely to increase dramatically over the next few years, forecasts Saugatha Saha.
He is head of the commodities department of S&P Global, the billionaire US news service provider, whose empire includes the rating agency S&P and the »Dow Jones« stock indices.
"The rumors about a decline in oil production in the near future are completely exaggerated," says Saha.
According to him, global oil consumption will not fall until 2040.
Instead, it will increase significantly: from the current level of around 100 million barrels (159 liters each) to 115 to 118 million barrels per day.
Although demand in Germany and some other European countries will fall somewhat, Saha predicts that it will increase sharply in other regions of the world.
Three countries in particular will burn much more oil in 2040 than today: China (+ 4.7 million barrels), India (+ 4.1 million) and the USA (+ 1.3 million).
"Peak Oil", i.e. the high point of global production, is not expected by S&P Global until 2035 at the earliest. And in the 2040s, demand will not collapse, but will only decrease gradually.
Accordingly, S&P Global is skeptical that the global community will succeed in curbing global warming.
"We don't see anywhere near a path to reach the 1.5 degree scenario," says Saha.
According to him, for this to happen, emissions would have to fall by seven to eight percent per annum over the years.
Even during the pandemic, when factories were closed and public life had come to a standstill at times, the decrease in emissions was not that strong.
The most prominent member of the US delegation does not want to see things so pessimistically: John Kerry, President Joe Biden's special climate envoy.
In a gruff voice, he spreads optimism that climate protection will not fall behind even in times of war.
»I am absolutely convinced that we can achieve a low-carbon society.
I just can't guarantee we'll make it on time."
Kerry justifies his confidence with the fact that at the world climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, the states committed themselves to savings that would limit global warming to 1.8 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.
That's a good thing - and it could get even better, is Kerry's message: "We have a promising future ahead of us."
Hoping for China's downturn
His Chinese counterpart on the Davos stage, Beijing's longstanding special envoy for climate protection Xie Zhenhua, agrees with Kerry.
The economy will benefit from climate protection.
A “win-win situation” is why the current crisis should be overcome quickly.
Xie also warns against closing the two world powers on the issue.
Solutions can only be found with cooperation.
His country had made commitments to the Paris climate agreement.
"We must continue to pursue the principles of the Paris Agreement," said the Chinese official.
However, Xie is the few high-ranking representatives of the People's Republic at this Davos meeting.
Many hopes are once again pinned on China, the engine of the global economy over the past 20 years.
This time, however, some Davos participants wish: a downturn.
"If China's economy weakens because of the corona lockdowns, China's demand will fall," says a delegate.
Then more is left for the other states, and prices could fall.
The latter would not be so good for climate protection.
Because the more expensive fossil fuels become, the greater the pressure to switch to regenerative energy sources.
"This crisis could be a turning point for states to change their energy policies," says IEA boss Birol.
If they invest properly now, "especially in renewable energies and nuclear power," the world will no longer have to choose between the evils of energy shortages and climate change.