Hospitalizations linked to Covid will further increase “
in the coming days
”, according to new projections published Thursday July 6 by researchers from the Institut Pasteur, who note a slowdown in certain indicators but consider the date of the epidemic peak to be uncertain.
"
At the national level and in metropolitan areas
", these projections, updated for the first time in several weeks, anticipate "
an increase in hospital admissions in the coming days
".
The projections, which date from Tuesday and which go until July 18, count on some 1,700 daily admissions to the hospital by this horizon, against around a thousand these days.
In critical care, admissions would climb to around 160 per day, where they are currently around 100.
Variation by region
In certain regions such as Ile-de-France, the team of Simon Cauchemez, modeler at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council, however notes “
a slowdown in the growth of hospitalizations and the number of cases
”.
“
This type of slowdown may be a precursor indicator of the peak of the epidemic, the date of which nevertheless remains uncertain
”, according to the Pasteur researchers.
Their analysis model has certain limitations, however, they point out.
Not only "
the 14-day projections risk being overestimated in regions where there is a change in dynamics (possible arrival of an epidemic peak)
", but "
the model probably overestimates the dynamics of critical care admissions
" .
Noting the increase in admissions to conventional hospital wards and, to a lesser extent, to critical care, the new Minister of Health, François Braun, underlined on Tuesday that it was so far "
far below the peak of January
» and without comparison with the previous waves, «
of an even greater magnitude
».
“
However, we are extremely attentive to the evolution of the situation in the context that we know about the hospital
”, continued François Braun, emergency physician by profession.
Read alsoCovid-19: “Current measures cannot curb the different waves”
More than 154,600 new cases of Covid-19 were recorded Wednesday evening by Public Health France, 45% more than a week earlier and at the highest level since the end of April.
Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne called on Wednesday evening for "
vigilance
" in the face of the seventh wave of the epidemic, and for wearing a mask in "
closed spaces where there are a lot of people
" while stressing that it would not become again a national "
obligation
".