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Turbine from the family of aeroderivative gas turbines (symbolic image): Manufacturer Siemens Energy does not provide any information about which turbine is used in the pipeline
Photo: SiemensEnergy
Nord Stream 1 is temporarily on hold, officially due to maintenance work.
The Russian energy group Gazprom had already significantly reduced its gas deliveries to Germany through the Baltic Sea pipeline in mid-June.
This was justified in Moscow with a missing turbine that could not be returned from Canada after maintenance work due to sanctions.
Canada has now announced that it will send the turbine to Germany after all.
According to Siemens Energy, it should be taken from here “to its place of use as quickly as possible”.
How does this affect the gas supply in Germany?
The overview.
What kind of gas turbine is it?
The turbine required for the pipeline belongs to the family of aeroderivative gas turbines.
They were originally developed for installation in aircraft, but are well suited as mechanical drives in the gas and oil industry due to their comparatively compact design and low weight.
Manufacturer Siemens Energy does not provide any information about which turbine is used in the pipeline.
When is the turbine used?
Siemens Energy explains that the company's goal is "to transport the turbine to its place of use as quickly as possible".
How fast the turbine actually runs again and transports gas does not depend solely on Siemens Energy.
The machine is currently still in Canada and the export has yet to be formally approved.
The turbine will first be brought to a Siemens Energy location in Germany by plane.
The necessary transport aircraft must be chartered.
Normally, when there is less urgency, transport is by ship.
After the stopover in Germany, where the turbine may be tested again, the plan is to fly to the pipeline near St. Petersburg.
Import permits are also required for this.
Gazprom will then reinstall the turbine.
How quickly this can be done and when the pipeline will resume operations is likely to be primarily a political question.
How long will no gas flow at all?
From July 11 to July 21 at 6 a.m., Nord Stream 1 will be shut down – for ten days.
In model calculations, the Federal Network Agency assumes up to two weeks, but has included a time buffer.
Under normal circumstances, the work should be completed within the planned period, the authority said.
Russia's ambassador to the EU said in mid-June that a complete shutdown was also possible because of the problems with the repair work.
Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) also fears this.
He recently said he sees a pattern that could lead to this scenario.
Habeck spoke of an "economic warlike dispute."
Russian gas deliveries via other lines to Germany had also recently fallen significantly.
At the same time, several European states that support the government in Kyiv are already stopping receiving gas from Russia.
It is still unclear whether the pipeline will transport gas again in the future.
How much gas flowed last?
In June, the Russian state-owned company Gazprom had already significantly reduced the delivery volume through the more than 1,200-kilometer pipeline.
Most recently, according to the Federal Network Agency, the line was only about 40 percent utilized.
According to Russia, these delays were related to sanctions imposed on Russia by the West for attacking Ukraine.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had criticized the reasoning as advanced.
For its part, the federal government now has to face allegations that it is undermining the West's Russia sanctions by releasing the turbine from Canada.
How important is the pipeline for gas supply?
The pipeline, commissioned in 2011, has been the conduit through which a significant majority of Russian gas has been delivered to Germany for at least the past few months.
So far, the pipeline has transported 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Germany every year, which is more than half of Germany's gas consumption (95 to 100 billion cubic meters).
However, Germany also exports the incoming gas, including to the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.
There are no official statistics on the exact proportion of gas volumes from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline remaining in Germany.
Other pipelines for Russian natural gas are the Yamal pipeline, which arrives in Mallnow, Brandenburg, and a pipeline system running through Ukraine with a connection point in Waidhaus, Bavaria.
According to the Federal Network Agency, no gas has been arriving in Mallnow for some time, in Waidhaus the amount has recently also fallen significantly and was only a fraction of the amount arriving in Lubmin before that.
According to the Economics Ministry, the share of Russian gas deliveries in Germany was 55 percent last year, but had fallen to 35 percent by the end of April this year.
What happens if no more gas comes to Germany through Nord Stream 1?
Even then there would probably not be an immediate gas shortage in Germany - that is the result of model calculations by the Federal Network Agency.
However, Germany could not fill up its gas storage facilities as much as planned before the heating season.
A diagnosis by several economic research institutes comes to the conclusion that even in the worst case scenario, there will be no more gas bottlenecks this year and next year only in rather unfavorable scenarios.
Irrespective of this, a sustained delivery stop would probably cause prices to continue to rise.
The companies affected by the throttled deliveries already have to procure gas elsewhere on the market at significantly higher prices.
According to the Federal Network Agency, private consumers must also be prepared for significantly increasing gas prices.
They expressly support the request to save as much gas as possible.
svs/mhs/dpa