A week after the presidential commitment to reform work "
as of this summer
", the OFCE questioned Thursday in a study the objective of full employment by 2027 and the government's deficit forecasts.
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The French Economic Observatory thus anticipates a rise in the unemployment rate to 8% in 2023 and 2024, before a slight decline at the end of the five-year period to reach 7.5% in 2027 (i.e. 0.2 points above its actual level).
Skepticism about the replacement of Pôle emploi by France Travail
The OFCE study, which tries to outline the macroeconomic framework for the next five years, therefore puts forward more pessimistic figures than those of the government, wishing to bring the unemployment rate down to around 5%, the level generally adopted in France. to define full employment.
Among the main reforms announced on the employment front, the replacement of Pôle emploi by France Travail, via the merger of several existing operators, is "
complex to carry out
", underline the authors.
"
There is no guarantee that, by nature, a single, multi-service operator will be more efficient than specialized operators with well-defined attributions
".
Such an “
institutional
” reform is not “
directly job-creating
”, observes the OFCE, which does not comment on the impact of the future reform of unemployment insurance on employment.
“
In total, 750,000 jobs were created in France between the end of 2019 and the end of 2021, including nearly 400,000 apprenticeship jobs.
“, note the authors.
But this success has been facilitated by costly state aid to companies to convince them to hire apprentices.
Given the budgetary constraints linked to the high level of debt and the public deficit, “
the contribution of apprenticeship to full employment should logically reach a ceiling and probably become negative
”, anticipates the OFCE.
In terms of public finances, economic analysts expect the deficit to reach 5.5% at the end of 2022, against 5% expected by the executive.
In 2027, it should stand at 3.7% (0.7 points above the government target), "
mainly due to the reduction in budgetary support for the economy
",
Read alsoFrom Pôle emploi to France Travail: a name change that could be expensive
After +2.4% in 2022, France's GDP should grow more modestly by 1% in 2023, then by 1.9% over the last three years of the five-year term.
So many forecasts which are however weakened by “
significant international hazards
” such as the war in Ukraine, warns the OFCE.
