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Dry ship on the Rhine in Düsseldorf: Important shipping route for raw materials such as grain, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products
Photo: Federico Gambarini / dpa
Despite the ongoing drought, the President of the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration believes that freight traffic on the Rhine is still possible.
He does not expect shipping traffic on the Rhine to stop, said Hans-Heinrich Witte, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung" ("FAS"), according to a preliminary report.
"It's theoretically possible, but I don't think it's likely," said the agency chief.
Witte pointed out that shipping traffic on the Rhine continued even in the drought year of 2018.
However, when the water level is low, the ships could transport considerably less cargo.
This also makes it difficult to transport coal and oil on the Rhine, which is considered important because of the lack of natural gas.
The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grain, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products such as heating oil.
"A lot has to be done by road and rail then," he said.
The Ministry of Transport had already announced that it was working with the Ministry of Economics to ensure that important goods were also transported by rail.
Level in Kaub still at 42 centimeters
The hot summer and lack of rainfall have led to sharply falling water levels on German waterways.
According to the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration, only 42 centimeters were measured on the Rhine at the Kaub narrows south of Koblenz on Friday – and thus around five centimeters lower than at the same time the previous day.
A level of 33 centimeters is expected for Monday.
The Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) recently declared that up to a water level of around 30 to 35 centimeters at the Kaub gauge, shallow inland waterway vessels could still pass the Middle Rhine route.
However, forecasts assume water levels in the direction of 30 centimeters by the beginning of next week at the Kaub level.
Witte told the "FAS" that investments in waterways are important.
Among other things, a deepening of the fairway on the Middle Rhine near Kaub is planned, which would facilitate shipping traffic at low tide.
However, Witte does not expect the deepening of the Middle Rhine to be completed until the beginning of the next decade.
problems for the production chains
But it is also clear that the low water is painful for the economy.
The economist Stefan Kooths from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said: “Calculations on the consequences of the 2018 low water in the Rhine show that industrial production will decrease by around one percent if the water levels at the Kaub measuring point exceed the critical mark of 78 centimeters for a period of 30 days.«
In Germany, only a small proportion of the goods transported are transported by inland waterway: according to the IfW, it was six percent in 2017.
However, for individual groups of goods such as coal, crude oil and natural gas, coke oven and petroleum products, and chemical products, inland shipping accounted for 10 to 30 percent of the transport volume.
"These goods are at the beginning of many production chains, so that failures in their transport can lead to production disruptions in downstream production stages," says Kooths.
According to Kooths, industrial production fell by around 1.5 percent at its peak in 2018.
Over the year, the low water is likely to have cost around 0.4 percent of economic output.
"However, the situation at that time cannot be transferred one-to-one to today," said the scientist.
The "height of fall" for German industrial production was much greater at the time.
The negative effects of the supply bottlenecks are much worse for the industry today.
Apr/Reuters/dpa