Beginning of a turnaround or simple hitch to the massive ebb started since 2021?
Unemployment figures rose again in July for the second consecutive month, after a yoyo trend since April.
According to data from the Ministry of Labor published on Thursday, the number of job seekers increased by 0.7%, or 20,300 additional people, bringing their total to 2,966,800 in mainland France.
Across the whole of France, there are 3.185 million people registered in category A, the master standard of unemployment statistics, which lists people who have not worked during the month.
All audiences, with the exception of young people, are affected by this increase.
In the reasons for registration, it is the return to a period of inactivity which mainly explains this small surge.
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This new slack, after the unemployment rate stabilized at 7.4% of the active population in the second quarter, represents a subject of concern for the Head of State, while Emmanuel Macron has set himself the full -employment as an objective by 2027. The distance to be traveled to win the Holy Grail of 5% unemployment presupposes an unfailing employment dynamic for five years.
While the decline in the active population in the coming years should mechanically allow this trend to continue, it will be insufficient without solid growth.
It would take 2.2% growth on average per year for four years to return to 5% unemployment.
After a growth rate of 7% in 2021, the Banque de France expects 3.6% in 2022, 2.2% in 2023, and only 1.4% in 2024. If the government is confident, the forecasts for medium term are weakened by the international situation, the war in Ukraine and the surge in prices, particularly those of raw materials.
Unemployment insurance reform soon on the menu
This is undoubtedly why the executive wants to hasten the pace on the major project of the modulation of unemployment insurance rights according to the economic situation.
The principle ?
“When things are going well, we tighten the rules and, when things are going badly, we relax them”, tried to sum up the Minister in charge of Labour, Full Employment and Integration.
“As of this weekend, Olivier Dussopt will consult the social partners on the question of unemployment insurance”, announced Olivier Véran, the government spokesperson, on France Inter on Tuesday.
This reform is one of the first pieces of legislation supposed to be presented to Parliament, in October.
The entire Labor Bill, which will be lightened and will include other themes – such as the extension of the current rules for the duration of the discussions – will be sent to them for consultation (and not for negotiation), in the coming days.
In the wake of the review in Parliament, the government will then launch discussions with the social partners to set the criteria and detailed conditions for this new, more incentive-based system, inspired by those in force in the United States and Canada.
Decisions which will then be the subject of implementing decrees.