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Ifo Index: Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter

2022-08-25T08:38:21.464Z


The mood index of the Munich Ifo Institute has fallen for the third month in a row. The German economy is therefore on the verge of a recession. Retail is hit particularly hard.


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Ships are at the Bremerhaven container terminal: "Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter"

Photo: Sina Schuldt / dpa

The mood in the German economy is bad.

The Ifo business climate index fell in August for the third month in a row to 88.5 points, said the Munich Ifo Institute.

In July, the index was still at 88.7 points.

The approximately 9,000 executives surveyed were somewhat more skeptical than last time about their business situation and prospects.

"Uncertainty among companies remains high," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest.

"Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter." According to Ifo, the outlook for the coming months remained almost unchanged "clearly pessimistic."

In the spring, the German economy achieved mini growth of 0.1 percent despite the consequences of the Ukraine war.

But the prospects are bleak: the Bundesbank expects economic output in the summer to “roughly stand still” and that there could be a recession in the winter half-year, also as a result of the gas crisis.

The mood in

retail

is particularly bad , for this sector the indicator continued its descent.

Fewer and fewer companies reported good business and expectations are extremely pessimistic.

“Many retailers face a dilemma.

On the one hand, the high inflation rates are having a negative impact on their business.

On the other hand, they can hardly avoid price increases due to increased costs, "said the Ifo Institute.

In the

service sector

, on the other hand, the business climate has improved slightly after the sharp slump in the previous month.

The companies assessed their current situation somewhat better.

While the mood in tourism recovered somewhat, the hospitality industry expects business to deteriorate noticeably.

The business climate has also improved

in the

construction industry .

The companies assessed their current situation somewhat better.

In addition, pessimism regarding the coming months has eased somewhat.

hey

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2022-08-25

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