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High inflation: US economy shrank in the first half of the year – but the labor market is stable

2022-09-29T16:48:27.875Z


Weak economy, high inflation: The USA is suffering from problems similar to those in Europe. However, there is still no recession – also because of the surprisingly strong labor market.


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People walking near the Federal Reserve Bank in New York

Photo: Mary Altaffer/AP

It was not a good half of the year for the US economy - it contracted in the first half of the year.

After a decline in economic output of 1.6 percent annualized in the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.6 percent annualized in the second quarter, according to the Department of Commerce in Washington.

Preliminary figures have thus been confirmed.

According to the ministry, the decline in the second quarter can be explained primarily by lower inventories and investments by companies as well as declining public spending.

On the other hand, the development was supported by exports and consumer spending.

Labor market is robust

With two negative quarters in a row, the conditions are actually met for economists to speak of a recession.

However, experts doubt that this is currently the case.

An important counter-argument is the robust labor market.

Regardless, the US economy is being held back by a number of developments, including high inflation and the Federal Reserve's sharp hikes in interest rates.

US growth figures are extrapolated for the year, i.e. annualized.

They are therefore not directly comparable with growth data from Europe, where this is not the case.

To approximate a growth rate comparable to Europe, you would have to divide the US rate by four.

The situation on the US job market has surprisingly improved in the past week.

The number of initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 193,000, according to the Washington Department of Labor.

The number of requests for assistance has fallen below 200,000 for the first time since the beginning of June.

Although the US economy has recently contracted, the situation on the labor market in the world's largest economy remains robust.

The initial jobless claims are considered a short-term indicator of the development of the American labor market.

Despite the economic downturn, many companies are currently complaining about a shortage of workers.

The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is strongly geared to developments on the American labor market.

It has used the solid labor market as an argument against a deep recession and wants to get high inflation under control by raising interest rates sharply.

ani/dpa

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2022-09-29

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